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Economia·Indícios

Desempenho do S&P 500 no primeiro trimestre

Market icon
Economia·Indícios

Desempenho do S&P 500 no primeiro trimestre

<0% 99.3%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$350,289 Vol.

<0% 99.3%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$350,289 Vol.

<0%

$41,634 Vol.

99%

0-2%

$14,888 Vol.

<1%

2-3%

$19,309 Vol.

<1%

3-4%

$43,303 Vol.

<1%

4-5%

$66,967 Vol.

<1%

5-6%

$46,183 Vol.

<1%

6-8%

$59,000 Vol.

<1%

8-10%

$34,678 Vol.

<1%

10%+

$24,325 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders have priced a 99.3% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% as of March 27, 2026, when it closed at 6,369 after breaching its 200-day moving average near 6,500. This consensus stems from a sharp five-session selloff extending losses to 6.5% over the past month, fueled by hot producer price index prints and tariff-driven inflation fears eroding risk appetite amid elevated Treasury yields. With just two trading days remaining until the March 31 quarter-end, a realistic challenge would require an improbable 7.5% surge—exceeding the largest single-day gain in S&P history—to flip the outcome positive, though upcoming Q1 earnings previews could influence final positioning.

Polymarket traders have priced a 99.3% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% as of March 27, 2026, when it closed at 6,369 after breaching its 200-day moving average near 6,500. This consensus stems from a sharp five-session selloff extending losses to 6.5% over the past month, fueled by hot producer price index prints and tariff-driven inflation fears eroding risk appetite amid elevated Treasury yields. With just two trading days remaining until the March 31 quarter-end, a realistic challenge would require an improbable 7.5% surge—exceeding the largest single-day gain in S&P history—to flip the outcome positive, though upcoming Q1 earnings previews could influence final positioning.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders have priced a 99.3% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% as of March 27, 2026, when it closed at 6,369 after breaching its 200-day moving average near 6,500. This consensus stems from a sharp five-session selloff extending losses to 6.5% over the past month, fueled by hot producer price index prints and tariff-driven inflation fears eroding risk appetite amid elevated Treasury yields. With just two trading days remaining until the March 31 quarter-end, a realistic challenge would require an improbable 7.5% surge—exceeding the largest single-day gain in S&P history—to flip the outcome positive, though upcoming Q1 earnings previews could influence final positioning.

Polymarket traders have priced a 99.3% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% as of March 27, 2026, when it closed at 6,369 after breaching its 200-day moving average near 6,500. This consensus stems from a sharp five-session selloff extending losses to 6.5% over the past month, fueled by hot producer price index prints and tariff-driven inflation fears eroding risk appetite amid elevated Treasury yields. With just two trading days remaining until the March 31 quarter-end, a realistic challenge would require an improbable 7.5% surge—exceeding the largest single-day gain in S&P history—to flip the outcome positive, though upcoming Q1 earnings previews could influence final positioning.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Desempenho do S&P 500 no primeiro trimestre" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<0%" at 99%, followed by "0-2%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Desempenho do S&P 500 no primeiro trimestre" has generated $350.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Desempenho do S&P 500 no primeiro trimestre," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Desempenho do S&P 500 no primeiro trimestre" is "<0%" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0-2%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Desempenho do S&P 500 no primeiro trimestre" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.