Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.7% implied probability to March 2026 CPI annual inflation reaching ≥2.8%, propelled by a surge in energy prices from the US-Iran conflict disrupting Middle East oil supplies. Brent crude jumped over 55% in March—the steepest monthly rise on record—pushing national gasoline prices up nearly $1 per gallon to around $3.80, with Cleveland Fed nowcasts (updated April 1) showing March headline CPI at 3.25% year-over-year versus February's 2.4%. Core CPI nowcast holds at 2.60% YoY amid sticky goods inflation. FOMC's March upward revision to 2026 PCE forecasts at 2.7% reinforces positioning. Resolution follows BLS release on April 10; challenges include abrupt oil price reversals or downward data revisions, though current trajectories limit such scenarios.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado≥2,8% 98.6%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,042,426 Vol.
$3,042,426 Vol.
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
99%
≥2,8% 98.6%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,042,426 Vol.
$3,042,426 Vol.
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.7% implied probability to March 2026 CPI annual inflation reaching ≥2.8%, propelled by a surge in energy prices from the US-Iran conflict disrupting Middle East oil supplies. Brent crude jumped over 55% in March—the steepest monthly rise on record—pushing national gasoline prices up nearly $1 per gallon to around $3.80, with Cleveland Fed nowcasts (updated April 1) showing March headline CPI at 3.25% year-over-year versus February's 2.4%. Core CPI nowcast holds at 2.60% YoY amid sticky goods inflation. FOMC's March upward revision to 2026 PCE forecasts at 2.7% reinforces positioning. Resolution follows BLS release on April 10; challenges include abrupt oil price reversals or downward data revisions, though current trajectories limit such scenarios.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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