Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.3% implied probability for March U.S. CPI year-over-year at ≥2.8%, driven by the Cleveland Fed's March 31 nowcast projecting 3.25% headline CPI y/y—up sharply from February's 2.4% actual—fueled by spikes in Brent crude oil and retail gasoline prices amid geopolitical tensions. Core CPI nowcast holds steady at 2.60% y/y with 0.20% m/m, underscoring persistent shelter and services pressures despite cooling base effects. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects aggregated bets on energy-led upside, reinforced by elevated consumer inflation expectations at 3.8% and FOMC's upwardly revised 2026 PCE projections to 2.7%. Realistic challenges include final-week energy price moderation or softer non-energy data ahead of the April 10 BLS release, potentially capping y/y below 2.8%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado≥2,8% 98.3%
2,7% <1%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
$2,987,400 Vol.
$2,987,400 Vol.
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
1%
≥2,8%
98%
≥2,8% 98.3%
2,7% <1%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
$2,987,400 Vol.
$2,987,400 Vol.
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
1%
≥2,8%
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 98.3% implied probability for March U.S. CPI year-over-year at ≥2.8%, driven by the Cleveland Fed's March 31 nowcast projecting 3.25% headline CPI y/y—up sharply from February's 2.4% actual—fueled by spikes in Brent crude oil and retail gasoline prices amid geopolitical tensions. Core CPI nowcast holds steady at 2.60% y/y with 0.20% m/m, underscoring persistent shelter and services pressures despite cooling base effects. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects aggregated bets on energy-led upside, reinforced by elevated consumer inflation expectations at 3.8% and FOMC's upwardly revised 2026 PCE projections to 2.7%. Realistic challenges include final-week energy price moderation or softer non-energy data ahead of the April 10 BLS release, potentially capping y/y below 2.8%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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