A shaky Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza has held through March 2026, facilitating the first phase of a US-backed 20-point reconstruction and disarmament plan, though the IDF conducts limited airstrikes, artillery shelling, and targeted operations against remaining Hamas fighters, as seen in recent clashes east of Gaza City. On March 26, the US advanced a proposal demanding Hamas's political surrender and weapons handover, which Hamas is now weighing amid diplomatic pressures for full demilitarization tied to Israel's phased withdrawal. With IDF resources redirected to ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Gaza escalation appears contained short-term, but traders monitor Hamas's impending response, potential ceasefire violations, and northern front spillovers that could prompt renewed military action.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIsrael military action against Gaza on...?
Israel military action against Gaza on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
46%
April 2
49%
April 3
49%
April 4
48%
April 5
48%
April 6
46%
April 7
44%
April 8
39%
April 9
44%
April 10
40%
$569 Vol.
April 1
$0 Vol.
46%
April 2
$0 Vol.
49%
April 3
$0 Vol.
49%
April 4
$0 Vol.
48%
April 5
$0 Vol.
48%
April 6
$186 Vol.
46%
April 7
$164 Vol.
44%
April 8
$0 Vol.
39%
April 9
$198 Vol.
44%
April 10
$21 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A shaky Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza has held through March 2026, facilitating the first phase of a US-backed 20-point reconstruction and disarmament plan, though the IDF conducts limited airstrikes, artillery shelling, and targeted operations against remaining Hamas fighters, as seen in recent clashes east of Gaza City. On March 26, the US advanced a proposal demanding Hamas's political surrender and weapons handover, which Hamas is now weighing amid diplomatic pressures for full demilitarization tied to Israel's phased withdrawal. With IDF resources redirected to ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Gaza escalation appears contained short-term, but traders monitor Hamas's impending response, potential ceasefire violations, and northern front spillovers that could prompt renewed military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
Volume
$569Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A shaky Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza has held through March 2026, facilitating the first phase of a US-backed 20-point reconstruction and disarmament plan, though the IDF conducts limited airstrikes, artillery shelling, and targeted operations against remaining Hamas fighters, as seen in recent clashes east of Gaza City. On March 26, the US advanced a proposal demanding Hamas's political surrender and weapons handover, which Hamas is now weighing amid diplomatic pressures for full demilitarization tied to Israel's phased withdrawal. With IDF resources redirected to ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Gaza escalation appears contained short-term, but traders monitor Hamas's impending response, potential ceasefire violations, and northern front spillovers that could prompt renewed military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$569Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A shaky Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza has held through March 2026, facilitating the first phase of a US-backed 20-point reconstruction and disarmament plan, though the IDF conducts limited airstrikes, artillery shelling, and targeted operations against remaining Hamas fighters, as seen in recent clashes east of Gaza City. On March 26, the US advanced a proposal demanding Hamas's political surrender and weapons handover, which Hamas is now weighing amid diplomatic pressures for full demilitarization tied to Israel's phased withdrawal. With IDF resources redirected to ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Gaza escalation appears contained short-term, but traders monitor Hamas's impending response, potential ceasefire violations, and northern front spillovers that could prompt renewed military action.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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