Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

15-19 53.9%

20-24 37.5%

25-29 3.8%

10-14 <1%

Polymarket

$391,973 Vol.

15-19 53.9%

20-24 37.5%

25-29 3.8%

10-14 <1%

Polymarket

$391,973 Vol.

<10

$52,723 Vol.

<1%

10-14

$35,765 Vol.

1%

15-19

$42,542 Vol.

54%

20-24

$35,943 Vol.

38%

25-29

$24,208 Vol.

4%

30-34

$21,970 Vol.

1%

35-39

$32,545 Vol.

<1%

40-44

$48,029 Vol.

<1%

45+

$98,247 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.9%, reflecting maritime trackers' reports of critically low daily volumes—typically 2 or fewer vessels per day, totaling around 14 AIS-visible crossings—amid a de facto blockade triggered by late February 2026 regional military escalations involving Iran. Daily counts from Windward, MarineTraffic, and Kpler show single-digit or zero transits since early March, down over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 120-130 vessels, as Iran enforces selective permissions favoring sanctioned or allied ships while hundreds backlog in the Gulf of Oman. The 20-24 outcome at 37.5% accounts for potential untracked or AIS-off movements, with the market awaiting official IMF PortWatch transit calls data for resolution.

Trader consensus prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.9%, reflecting maritime trackers' reports of critically low daily volumes—typically 2 or fewer vessels per day, totaling around 14 AIS-visible crossings—amid a de facto blockade triggered by late February 2026 regional military escalations involving Iran. Daily counts from Windward, MarineTraffic, and Kpler show single-digit or zero transits since early March, down over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 120-130 vessels, as Iran enforces selective permissions favoring sanctioned or allied ships while hundreds backlog in the Gulf of Oman. The 20-24 outcome at 37.5% accounts for potential untracked or AIS-off movements, with the market awaiting official IMF PortWatch transit calls data for resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.9%, reflecting maritime trackers' reports of critically low daily volumes—typically 2 or fewer vessels per day, totaling around 14 AIS-visible crossings—amid a de facto blockade triggered by late February 2026 regional military escalations involving Iran. Daily counts from Windward, MarineTraffic, and Kpler show single-digit or zero transits since early March, down over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 120-130 vessels, as Iran enforces selective permissions favoring sanctioned or allied ships while hundreds backlog in the Gulf of Oman. The 20-24 outcome at 37.5% accounts for potential untracked or AIS-off movements, with the market awaiting official IMF PortWatch transit calls data for resolution.

Trader consensus prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.9%, reflecting maritime trackers' reports of critically low daily volumes—typically 2 or fewer vessels per day, totaling around 14 AIS-visible crossings—amid a de facto blockade triggered by late February 2026 regional military escalations involving Iran. Daily counts from Windward, MarineTraffic, and Kpler show single-digit or zero transits since early March, down over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 120-130 vessels, as Iran enforces selective permissions favoring sanctioned or allied ships while hundreds backlog in the Gulf of Oman. The 20-24 outcome at 37.5% accounts for potential untracked or AIS-off movements, with the market awaiting official IMF PortWatch transit calls data for resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15-19" at 54%, followed by "20-24" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" has generated $392K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" is "15-19" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20-24" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.