Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

Quantos navios transitam pelo Estreito de Ormuz esta semana? (10 a 16 de março)

Market icon
Geopolítica·Irão

Quantos navios transitam pelo Estreito de Ormuz esta semana? (10 a 16 de março)

Ended: Mar 16

Mar 23

Mar 29

Ended: Mar 16

Mar 23

Mar 29

35-39 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-14 <1%

15-19 <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

35-39 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-14 <1%

15-19 <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

<10

$0 Vol.

Não

10-14

$0 Vol.

Não

15-19

$0 Vol.

Não

20-24

$0 Vol.

Não

25-29

$0 Vol.

Não

30-34

$0 Vol.

Não

35-39

$0 Vol.

Sim

40-44

$0 Vol.

Não

45+

$0 Vol.

Não

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 35-39 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 10-16 at 100%, reflecting confirmed maritime tracking data from automatic identification system (AIS) feeds and official reports showing steady vessel flows amid routine oil tanker and commercial traffic. This range aligns with recent weekly averages of 30-40 transits, unaffected by Houthi disruptions elsewhere or Iranian naval activities, as no major incidents halted passage. Primary drivers include consistent Persian Gulf export volumes and real-time monitoring by agencies like the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Realistic challenges could arise from data revisions, delayed reporting, or late-discovered unreported vessels, though such shifts remain improbable given the week's closure.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 35-39 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 10-16 at 100%, reflecting confirmed maritime tracking data from automatic identification system (AIS) feeds and official reports showing steady vessel flows amid routine oil tanker and commercial traffic. This range aligns with recent weekly averages of 30-40 transits, unaffected by Houthi disruptions elsewhere or Iranian naval activities, as no major incidents halted passage. Primary drivers include consistent Persian Gulf export volumes and real-time monitoring by agencies like the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Realistic challenges could arise from data revisions, delayed reporting, or late-discovered unreported vessels, though such shifts remain improbable given the week's closure.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 35-39 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 10-16 at 100%, reflecting confirmed maritime tracking data from automatic identification system (AIS) feeds and official reports showing steady vessel flows amid routine oil tanker and commercial traffic. This range aligns with recent weekly averages of 30-40 transits, unaffected by Houthi disruptions elsewhere or Iranian naval activities, as no major incidents halted passage. Primary drivers include consistent Persian Gulf export volumes and real-time monitoring by agencies like the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Realistic challenges could arise from data revisions, delayed reporting, or late-discovered unreported vessels, though such shifts remain improbable given the week's closure.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices 35-39 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 10-16 at 100%, reflecting confirmed maritime tracking data from automatic identification system (AIS) feeds and official reports showing steady vessel flows amid routine oil tanker and commercial traffic. This range aligns with recent weekly averages of 30-40 transits, unaffected by Houthi disruptions elsewhere or Iranian naval activities, as no major incidents halted passage. Primary drivers include consistent Persian Gulf export volumes and real-time monitoring by agencies like the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Realistic challenges could arise from data revisions, delayed reporting, or late-discovered unreported vessels, though such shifts remain improbable given the week's closure.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos navios transitam pelo Estreito de Ormuz esta semana? (10 a 16 de março)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "35-39" at 100%, followed by "<10" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quantos navios transitam pelo Estreito de Ormuz esta semana? (10 a 16 de março)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quantos navios transitam pelo Estreito de Ormuz esta semana? (10 a 16 de março)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos navios transitam pelo Estreito de Ormuz esta semana? (10 a 16 de março)" is "35-39" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<10" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos navios transitam pelo Estreito de Ormuz esta semana? (10 a 16 de março)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.