Hezbollah's sustained rocket barrages, drone strikes, and anti-tank attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel, including a March 26 mortar strike wounding four IDF soldiers, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted March 2 with Hezbollah's initial rocket salvo breaching the 2024 ceasefire. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon infrastructure plus ground operations since March 16, killing over 400 Hezbollah fighters per Lebanese sources. Daily exchanges reflect escalation signals from Iran proxies, though U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Trump's proposed plan introduce de-escalation risks; markets weigh persistent Hezbollah defiance against diplomatic pressures ahead of potential northern buffer zone expansion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$445,581 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
96%
March 27
94%
March 28
93%
March 29
92%
March 30
89%
March 31
89%
$445,581 Vol.
March 22
$390,376 Vol.
96%
March 27
$19,538 Vol.
94%
March 28
$4,874 Vol.
93%
March 29
$1,288 Vol.
92%
March 30
$1,336 Vol.
89%
March 31
$584 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah's sustained rocket barrages, drone strikes, and anti-tank attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel, including a March 26 mortar strike wounding four IDF soldiers, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted March 2 with Hezbollah's initial rocket salvo breaching the 2024 ceasefire. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon infrastructure plus ground operations since March 16, killing over 400 Hezbollah fighters per Lebanese sources. Daily exchanges reflect escalation signals from Iran proxies, though U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Trump's proposed plan introduce de-escalation risks; markets weigh persistent Hezbollah defiance against diplomatic pressures ahead of potential northern buffer zone expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$445,581Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah's sustained rocket barrages, drone strikes, and anti-tank attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel, including a March 26 mortar strike wounding four IDF soldiers, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted March 2 with Hezbollah's initial rocket salvo breaching the 2024 ceasefire. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon infrastructure plus ground operations since March 16, killing over 400 Hezbollah fighters per Lebanese sources. Daily exchanges reflect escalation signals from Iran proxies, though U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Trump's proposed plan introduce de-escalation risks; markets weigh persistent Hezbollah defiance against diplomatic pressures ahead of potential northern buffer zone expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$445,581Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah's sustained rocket barrages, drone strikes, and anti-tank attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel, including a March 26 mortar strike wounding four IDF soldiers, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted March 2 with Hezbollah's initial rocket salvo breaching the 2024 ceasefire. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon infrastructure plus ground operations since March 16, killing over 400 Hezbollah fighters per Lebanese sources. Daily exchanges reflect escalation signals from Iran proxies, though U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Trump's proposed plan introduce de-escalation risks; markets weigh persistent Hezbollah defiance against diplomatic pressures ahead of potential northern buffer zone expansion.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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