Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching rockets and projectiles on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalating into open conflict with over 400 fighters reported killed and Israeli ground operations advancing into southern Lebanon. Recent clashes on March 27 involved direct fighting in two Lebanese border villages, alongside mortar strikes wounding Israeli soldiers on March 26, while Hezbollah claimed 82 operations that day using rockets, drones, and artillery targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements. Lebanon's government banned such actions early on but lacks enforcement amid deepening fractures; trader consensus reflects sustained escalation signals, with potential U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Israeli buffer zone plans as key upcoming catalysts that could alter trajectories.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$770,538 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
100%
March 27
99%
March 29
86%
March 30
84%
March 31
86%
$770,538 Vol.
March 22
$1,034,349 Vol.
100%
March 27
$31,464 Vol.
99%
March 29
$3,914 Vol.
86%
March 30
$2,600 Vol.
84%
March 31
$1,613 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching rockets and projectiles on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalating into open conflict with over 400 fighters reported killed and Israeli ground operations advancing into southern Lebanon. Recent clashes on March 27 involved direct fighting in two Lebanese border villages, alongside mortar strikes wounding Israeli soldiers on March 26, while Hezbollah claimed 82 operations that day using rockets, drones, and artillery targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements. Lebanon's government banned such actions early on but lacks enforcement amid deepening fractures; trader consensus reflects sustained escalation signals, with potential U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Israeli buffer zone plans as key upcoming catalysts that could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$770,538Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching rockets and projectiles on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalating into open conflict with over 400 fighters reported killed and Israeli ground operations advancing into southern Lebanon. Recent clashes on March 27 involved direct fighting in two Lebanese border villages, alongside mortar strikes wounding Israeli soldiers on March 26, while Hezbollah claimed 82 operations that day using rockets, drones, and artillery targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements. Lebanon's government banned such actions early on but lacks enforcement amid deepening fractures; trader consensus reflects sustained escalation signals, with potential U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Israeli buffer zone plans as key upcoming catalysts that could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$770,538Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching rockets and projectiles on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalating into open conflict with over 400 fighters reported killed and Israeli ground operations advancing into southern Lebanon. Recent clashes on March 27 involved direct fighting in two Lebanese border villages, alongside mortar strikes wounding Israeli soldiers on March 26, while Hezbollah claimed 82 operations that day using rockets, drones, and artillery targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements. Lebanon's government banned such actions early on but lacks enforcement amid deepening fractures; trader consensus reflects sustained escalation signals, with potential U.S.-led ceasefire talks and Israeli buffer zone plans as key upcoming catalysts that could alter trajectories.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions