Trader sentiment on Polymarket for June gold (GC) settlement reflects a razor-thin race, with the $4,600-$5,000 bin leading at 19.0% implied probability just ahead of $4,200-$4,600 (17.8%), signaling bullish consensus amid expectations of prolonged Fed easing and persistent inflation pressures. Driving this are recent central bank gold purchases—China added 20 tonnes in September—coupled with geopolitical risks in the Middle East and U.S. election uncertainty weakening the dollar to 6-month lows near 100 on the DXY. GC futures curve in mild contango with June 2025 contracts near $2,850, but trader capital prices in upside from sub-2% real yields; key differentiators include November CPI (Nov 13) and FOMC (Dec 18), where hotter data could cap at lower bins or hotter geopolitics propel beyond $5,000.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual será o preço do ouro (GC) em junho?
Qual será o preço do ouro (GC) em junho?
$4.600-$5.000 19%
$4.200-$4.600 17.8%
$5.000-$5.400 14.4%
$3.800-$4.200 12.7%
$429,348 Vol.
$429,348 Vol.
Abaixo de US$ 3.800
8%
$3.800-$4.200
13%
$4.200-$4.600
18%
$4.600-$5.000
19%
$5.000-$5.400
14%
$5.400-$5.800
10%
$5.800-$6.200
9%
>US$6.200
8%
$4.600-$5.000 19%
$4.200-$4.600 17.8%
$5.000-$5.400 14.4%
$3.800-$4.200 12.7%
$429,348 Vol.
$429,348 Vol.
Abaixo de US$ 3.800
8%
$3.800-$4.200
13%
$4.200-$4.600
18%
$4.600-$5.000
19%
$5.000-$5.400
14%
$5.400-$5.800
10%
$5.800-$6.200
9%
>US$6.200
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for June gold (GC) settlement reflects a razor-thin race, with the $4,600-$5,000 bin leading at 19.0% implied probability just ahead of $4,200-$4,600 (17.8%), signaling bullish consensus amid expectations of prolonged Fed easing and persistent inflation pressures. Driving this are recent central bank gold purchases—China added 20 tonnes in September—coupled with geopolitical risks in the Middle East and U.S. election uncertainty weakening the dollar to 6-month lows near 100 on the DXY. GC futures curve in mild contango with June 2025 contracts near $2,850, but trader capital prices in upside from sub-2% real yields; key differentiators include November CPI (Nov 13) and FOMC (Dec 18), where hotter data could cap at lower bins or hotter geopolitics propel beyond $5,000.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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