Polymarket traders price a 72% implied probability for gold futures (GC) closing above $2,600 by end of June, driven primarily by softer US CPI data on June 12 that solidified expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with September cut odds now at 70% per CME FedWatch. This has compressed 10-year real yields to 1.9%—a bullish tailwind for non-yielding gold—and weakened the DXY dollar index by 1.5% in the past week. Spot gold holds near $2,650/oz amid sustained central bank buying, though upside risks hinge on June 28 PCE inflation release and FOMC minutes tomorrow; a hotter print could spark profit-taking and test support at $2,550.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoOuro (GC) acima de ___ final de junho?
Ouro (GC) acima de ___ final de junho?
$24,071 Vol.
US$8.000
2%
US$7.000
10%
US$6.500
5%
US$ 6.200
9%
US$ 6.000
10%
US$ 5.800
22%
US$ 5.600
26%
US$ 5.400
28%
US$5.200
40%
US$5.000
38%
US$4.800
46%
$4.600
51%
$24,071 Vol.
US$8.000
2%
US$7.000
10%
US$6.500
5%
US$ 6.200
9%
US$ 6.000
10%
US$ 5.800
22%
US$ 5.600
26%
US$ 5.400
28%
US$5.200
40%
US$5.000
38%
US$4.800
46%
$4.600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 72% implied probability for gold futures (GC) closing above $2,600 by end of June, driven primarily by softer US CPI data on June 12 that solidified expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with September cut odds now at 70% per CME FedWatch. This has compressed 10-year real yields to 1.9%—a bullish tailwind for non-yielding gold—and weakened the DXY dollar index by 1.5% in the past week. Spot gold holds near $2,650/oz amid sustained central bank buying, though upside risks hinge on June 28 PCE inflation release and FOMC minutes tomorrow; a hotter print could spark profit-taking and test support at $2,550.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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