Polymarket traders price a roughly 60% implied probability for gold futures (GC) closing above $2,350 by June 30, driven primarily by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine boosting safe-haven demand amid a weakening U.S. dollar index near 104. Spot gold holds above $2,330/oz after May's softer-than-expected PCE inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, signaling potential Fed rate cuts that lower real yields and favor non-yielding assets. Central bank buying, led by China's 2.3 million oz Q1 purchases, adds tailwind. Key risks include June 12 CPI data and the June 11-12 FOMC meeting; hotter prints could strengthen the dollar and cap upside, while consensus trader sentiment eyes $2,400 resistance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoOuro (GC) acima de ___ final de junho?
Ouro (GC) acima de ___ final de junho?
$24,071 Vol.
US$8.000
2%
US$7.000
11%
US$6.500
5%
US$ 6.200
9%
US$ 6.000
10%
US$ 5.800
22%
US$ 5.600
27%
US$ 5.400
28%
US$5.200
40%
US$5.000
38%
US$4.800
47%
$4.600
51%
$24,071 Vol.
US$8.000
2%
US$7.000
11%
US$6.500
5%
US$ 6.200
9%
US$ 6.000
10%
US$ 5.800
22%
US$ 5.600
27%
US$ 5.400
28%
US$5.200
40%
US$5.000
38%
US$4.800
47%
$4.600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a roughly 60% implied probability for gold futures (GC) closing above $2,350 by June 30, driven primarily by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine boosting safe-haven demand amid a weakening U.S. dollar index near 104. Spot gold holds above $2,330/oz after May's softer-than-expected PCE inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, signaling potential Fed rate cuts that lower real yields and favor non-yielding assets. Central bank buying, led by China's 2.3 million oz Q1 purchases, adds tailwind. Key risks include June 12 CPI data and the June 11-12 FOMC meeting; hotter prints could strengthen the dollar and cap upside, while consensus trader sentiment eyes $2,400 resistance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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