Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63.5% implied probability to WTI Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven primarily by ongoing Middle East conflict choking Strait of Hormuz flows—the largest supply disruption on record—imposing a steep geopolitical risk premium that has propelled June 2026 futures to around $90 per barrel. Recent EIA data for the week ending April 3 revealed a 3.1 million barrel crude inventory build to 464.7 million barrels, providing limited offset amid robust U.S. production near 13.6 million bpd, while OPEC+'s modest 206,000 bpd output hike for May was dismissed by markets as insufficient. Elevated Brent-WTI spreads highlight shipping constraints, with traders eyeing next week's EIA report and any Hormuz de-escalation for volatility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
Qual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
>US$84 64%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 9.3%
$63-$70 5.5%
$115,317 Vol.
$115,317 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
6%
$70-$77
9%
$77-$84
17%
>US$84
64%
>US$84 64%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 9.3%
$63-$70 5.5%
$115,317 Vol.
$115,317 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
6%
$70-$77
9%
$77-$84
17%
>US$84
64%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63.5% implied probability to WTI Crude Oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven primarily by ongoing Middle East conflict choking Strait of Hormuz flows—the largest supply disruption on record—imposing a steep geopolitical risk premium that has propelled June 2026 futures to around $90 per barrel. Recent EIA data for the week ending April 3 revealed a 3.1 million barrel crude inventory build to 464.7 million barrels, providing limited offset amid robust U.S. production near 13.6 million bpd, while OPEC+'s modest 206,000 bpd output hike for May was dismissed by markets as insufficient. Elevated Brent-WTI spreads highlight shipping constraints, with traders eyeing next week's EIA report and any Hormuz de-escalation for volatility.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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