Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver elevating crude oil settlement probabilities above $84 for June. Supply shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day in Gulf producers, combined with force majeure declarations and reduced exports, have sustained elevated risk premiums and pushed recent WTI levels near $100 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on persistent inventory draws through the second quarter, reinforced by OPEC’s downward revisions to 2026 demand growth amid higher prices and weaker economic conditions. While a gradual resumption of Hormuz traffic could ease pressures later in the month, the current pricing embeds limited scope for rapid de-escalation before June settlement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual será o preço do Petróleo Bruto (CL) em junho?
>US$84 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.6%
$161,278 Vol.
$161,278 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>US$84
70%
>US$84 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70-$77 8.1%
$63-$70 2.6%
$161,278 Vol.
$161,278 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
19%
>US$84
70%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver elevating crude oil settlement probabilities above $84 for June. Supply shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day in Gulf producers, combined with force majeure declarations and reduced exports, have sustained elevated risk premiums and pushed recent WTI levels near $100 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on persistent inventory draws through the second quarter, reinforced by OPEC’s downward revisions to 2026 demand growth amid higher prices and weaker economic conditions. While a gradual resumption of Hormuz traffic could ease pressures later in the month, the current pricing embeds limited scope for rapid de-escalation before June settlement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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