**Maura Sullivan leads the NH-01 Democratic primary market at 82.5%** due to her consistent fundraising edge—raising over $3.3 million with strong cash on hand—veteran endorsements from groups like VoteVets, and recent polling momentum that has shifted her ahead or into a statistical tie with Stefany Shaheen. Sullivan, a Marine Corps veteran and former Obama administration official who previously ran for the seat, has emphasized her service record and a moderate health care stance, while outpacing the field in outside support and grassroots events ahead of the September 8 primary. Shaheen, initially the frontrunner on name recognition as the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, trails at 15.5% after falling behind in quarterly fundraising and seeing her attacks on Sullivan’s outside donors fail to reverse the trend in late surveys. Lesser-known candidates including Carleigh Beriont and Heath Howard remain far behind at single digits or less, reflecting limited consolidation of progressive support. Traders appear to price in Sullivan’s organizational and financial advantages in the final days.