Heightened US-Cuba tensions under the Trump administration, driven by expanded sanctions, an oil embargo, and fuel shipment interdictions, have prompted contingency planning by US Southern Command and the Army Reserve for potential support operations. Recent September 2026 reports of internal memos examining logistics, medical, and engineering units for SOUTHCOM within 90-120 days elevated market attention to military scenarios, though no deployment orders exist and earlier reconnaissance efforts remain limited. President Trump has publicly stated that a deal is likely and military action unnecessary, emphasizing economic opening and support for Cuban Americans, while Cuba maintains defense preparations amid stalled formal talks but open communication channels. These factors, alongside ongoing pressure campaigns and Guantanamo base enhancements, keep trader-implied probabilities for US military action by year-end low, reflecting the preference for non-kinetic measures unless escalation thresholds are crossed.