**US strike on Mexico by December 31 carries low implied probability in trader consensus due to sustained bilateral security cooperation and Mexican insistence on sovereignty.** President Trump has repeatedly threatened action against cartels designated as terrorist organizations, with Vice President Vance affirming the right to respond to imminent threats, yet reported plans for airstrikes have been paused amid trade talks and joint efforts. The late-September cross-border shooting incident near the Rio Grande prompted deployment of 500 US troops and Mexican forces under Operation Mirror, alongside expanded anti-drone operations, without escalation to strikes on Mexican soil. US maritime interdictions continue in the Caribbean and Pacific, while Mexico has rejected direct intervention and sought evidence of border incidents. No qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory has occurred, and scheduled diplomatic and operational coordination through year-end reinforces the current market positioning.