Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes and elevated euro-area inflation projections, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% through April 2026 meetings while adopting a data-dependent stance. Official staff forecasts and the Survey of Professional Forecasters show modal expectations for the deposit rate shifting toward 2.25% or higher through late 2026 amid resilient labor markets and core inflation pressures. Futures pricing and economist surveys reflect at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to address second-round effects, aligning with the 86.5% trader consensus against any 2026 cut. De-escalation lowering energy costs or softer incoming data could alter this path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?
$28,063 Wol.
$28,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,063 Wol.
$28,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes and elevated euro-area inflation projections, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% through April 2026 meetings while adopting a data-dependent stance. Official staff forecasts and the Survey of Professional Forecasters show modal expectations for the deposit rate shifting toward 2.25% or higher through late 2026 amid resilient labor markets and core inflation pressures. Futures pricing and economist surveys reflect at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to address second-round effects, aligning with the 86.5% trader consensus against any 2026 cut. De-escalation lowering energy costs or softer incoming data could alter this path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,063Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes and elevated euro-area inflation projections, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% through April 2026 meetings while adopting a data-dependent stance. Official staff forecasts and the Survey of Professional Forecasters show modal expectations for the deposit rate shifting toward 2.25% or higher through late 2026 amid resilient labor markets and core inflation pressures. Futures pricing and economist surveys reflect at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to address second-round effects, aligning with the 86.5% trader consensus against any 2026 cut. De-escalation lowering energy costs or softer incoming data could alter this path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$28,063Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy price spikes and elevated euro-area inflation projections, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00% through April 2026 meetings while adopting a data-dependent stance. Official staff forecasts and the Survey of Professional Forecasters show modal expectations for the deposit rate shifting toward 2.25% or higher through late 2026 amid resilient labor markets and core inflation pressures. Futures pricing and economist surveys reflect at least one or two quarter-point hikes this year to address second-round effects, aligning with the 86.5% trader consensus against any 2026 cut. De-escalation lowering energy costs or softer incoming data could alter this path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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