Polymarket traders assign a leading 38% implied probability to NVIDIA (NVDA) hitting $212 in April 2026, reflecting the stock's intra-month peak near $217 on April 27 before a sharp 4.5% drop to $199.57 close on April 30 amid reports of Google selling custom TPU chips to customers and OpenAI missing revenue targets, stoking fears over hyperscaler AI capital expenditure sustainability. This pullback erased early-month gains despite robust Q4 FY2026 data center revenue of $62 billion, up 75% year-over-year, underscoring competitive pressures in the AI GPU market. At a $4.85 trillion market cap and 40.73 trailing P/E, trader consensus anticipates Q1 FY2027 earnings on May 20 to clarify Blackwell chip ramp and demand trajectory, with analyst targets averaging $269.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$88,201 Vol.
May 1, 2026
↑ $264
No
↑ $244
No
↑ $228
No
↑ $212
Yes
↑ $200
Yes
↑ $192
Yes
↑ $184
Yes
↓ $176
Yes
↓ $168
No
↓ $160
No
↓ $148
No
↓ $136
No
↓ $120
No
↓ $100
No
$88,201 Vol.
↑ $264
$2,823 Vol.
No
↑ $244
$2,597 Vol.
No
↑ $228
$8,814 Vol.
No
↑ $212
$2,076 Vol.
Yes
↑ $200
$4,175 Vol.
Yes
↑ $192
$4,646 Vol.
Yes
↑ $184
$5,866 Vol.
Yes
↓ $176
$12,927 Vol.
Yes
↓ $168
$18,310 Vol.
No
↓ $160
$5,015 Vol.
No
↓ $148
$6,747 Vol.
No
↓ $136
$5,044 Vol.
No
↓ $120
$6,805 Vol.
No
↓ $100
$2,356 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Low" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.Polymarket traders assign a leading 38% implied probability to NVIDIA (NVDA) hitting $212 in April 2026, reflecting the stock's intra-month peak near $217 on April 27 before a sharp 4.5% drop to $199.57 close on April 30 amid reports of Google selling custom TPU chips to customers and OpenAI missing revenue targets, stoking fears over hyperscaler AI capital expenditure sustainability. This pullback erased early-month gains despite robust Q4 FY2026 data center revenue of $62 billion, up 75% year-over-year, underscoring competitive pressures in the AI GPU market. At a $4.85 trillion market cap and 40.73 trailing P/E, trader consensus anticipates Q1 FY2027 earnings on May 20 to clarify Blackwell chip ramp and demand trajectory, with analyst targets averaging $269.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Volume
$88,201End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Low" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.Polymarket traders assign a leading 38% implied probability to NVIDIA (NVDA) hitting $212 in April 2026, reflecting the stock's intra-month peak near $217 on April 27 before a sharp 4.5% drop to $199.57 close on April 30 amid reports of Google selling custom TPU chips to customers and OpenAI missing revenue targets, stoking fears over hyperscaler AI capital expenditure sustainability. This pullback erased early-month gains despite robust Q4 FY2026 data center revenue of $62 billion, up 75% year-over-year, underscoring competitive pressures in the AI GPU market. At a $4.85 trillion market cap and 40.73 trailing P/E, trader consensus anticipates Q1 FY2027 earnings on May 20 to clarify Blackwell chip ramp and demand trajectory, with analyst targets averaging $269.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Volume
$88,201End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Polymarket traders assign a leading 38% implied probability to NVIDIA (NVDA) hitting $212 in April 2026, reflecting the stock's intra-month peak near $217 on April 27 before a sharp 4.5% drop to $199.57 close on April 30 amid reports of Google selling custom TPU chips to customers and OpenAI missing revenue targets, stoking fears over hyperscaler AI capital expenditure sustainability. This pullback erased early-month gains despite robust Q4 FY2026 data center revenue of $62 billion, up 75% year-over-year, underscoring competitive pressures in the AI GPU market. At a $4.85 trillion market cap and 40.73 trailing P/E, trader consensus anticipates Q1 FY2027 earnings on May 20 to clarify Blackwell chip ramp and demand trajectory, with analyst targets averaging $269.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions