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This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Iran Nuke 

Iran Nuke in 2025?

Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, claiming Iran was weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon, despite U.S. intelligence assessments confirming Iran is not currently building one. President Trump has repeatedly emphasized that peace cannot coexist with Iran possessing nuclear capabilities, while critics argue the strikes and rhetoric are driven by longstanding political agendas.

Iran Nuclear Tensions

US intelligence assessed just weeks ago that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon

“The IC [Intelligence Community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003. https://t.co/jtNw3d3xgR

Trump says Iran cannot get nuclear bomb: 'You can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon'

https://t.co/3CD2ebL90L

U.S. CONFIRMS IRAN NOT BUILDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS: March 25, 2025 the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified that the IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he https://t.co/BkZY5nkEAI

Trump says Iran cannot get nuclear bomb: "You can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon"

https://t.co/6NDTdCzQN5

Netanyahu says he attacked Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon, but: 
1. Obama's deal had done that. Netanyahu convinced Trump to rip it up.
2. Trump was near a new deal. Netanyahu sabotaged it by bombing Iran. 
He just wanted to bomb Iran. https://t.co/DTs3QMYOpM

You can spend literally 40 years falsely warning the world that Iran is months or weeks away from obtaining a nuclear weapon: as Israel has been doing.

But the minute it's used as pretext to start a war, many Americans will say: "good! Iran was weeks away from getting nukes." https://t.co/nrhiOi7ChE

There is no part of me that disagrees with the decision of both the Americans and the Israelis to exclude the UK from intelligence on the strike on nuclear weapon facilities in Iran.
It ought to alarm us as a country, sadly I don’t think it will. https://t.co/PyhFxxG7DW

Yall realize that Iran allows inspections of their nuclear program, they’ve signed the nuclear treaties, and we were one day away from peace talks.

This “stopping Iran from getting a nuke” narrative is propaganda cooked up by Israel- the nation that stole its nuclear weapons https://t.co/Q25XbhRtsc

In case you missed it, Iran's lead negotiator Shemkhani said TWO WEEKS AGO Iran was ready to commit to NEVER having a nuclear weapon, but Mr. Art of The Deal trump didn't make it happen, he let Israel bomb the guy instead.

Useless fucking idiot.
https://t.co/EyuXtZseD2

The idea that Iran poses no threat to us is a fantasy.

Iran has killed hundreds of American troops. It tried to assassinate an ambassdor in D.C. It tried to kill President Trump. Its leaders chant death to America.

We must never let this terrorist regime get a nuclear weapon.

🇮🇱🇮🇷 "IRAN WAS DAYS AWAY FROM MAKING A NUCLEAR BOMB"

IDF International Spokesperson:

“We saw Iran specifically taking steps to advance the nuclear bomb.

They were days away from having a nuclear weapon, which is an Israeli problem, but it’s [also] a problem for all the world. https://t.co/2nh7yRo8DE https://t.co/3TffISp8zh

Spoke with Iranian FM @araghchi. Risk of further escalation in the region is dangerously high. Diplomacy must prevail. The EU has always been clear: Iran must never be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon. Only diplomacy can lead to a lasting solution. The EU is ready to support.

.@POTUS: “You can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon.” https://t.co/4DY8exHwHq

The IDF spokesperson says Israel had to take this action now because of the "immediate imminent threat" of Iran developing a nuclear bomb

The interviewer quotes the US head of National Intelligence in March saying Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. https://t.co/HF5HGlzzSc

Was Iran months away from producing a nuclear bomb? https://t.co/zSGV9GZDEn

Trump: "I decide what America First means. For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon—that’s not peace.” https://t.co/jqgf2cAYus

BREAKING: President Trump slams Tucker Carlson:

“For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon—that’s not peace.” https://t.co/5FgmUgzHG9

🇮🇷 Iran had two paths: 

1. The North Korean path: reject any negotiations and build a nuclear bomb. 

2. The Libyan path: negotiate, appease, and be destroyed. 

It seems they chose the second path...

2-3 WEEKS AGO: 🚨  “The IC [Intelligence Community] continues to assess that Iran is NOT BUILDING A NUCLEAR WEAPON and Supreme Leader Khamanei has NOT AUTHORIZED the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003."

WHAT IS GOING ON?

https://t.co/xZhqq2AT6G

US Intelligence here saying that Iran was not believed to be building a nuclear weapon. Their sites are currently open to IAEA inspection as Iran is a signatory to the NPT. But for how much longer? However, Israel does have clandestine nuclear weapons. https://t.co/8tEAPZnPvl

BREAKING 🔴

YNET:  “The danger that Iran will quickly develop a nuclear bomb has been removed”

Trump tells The Atlanta:

“For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon—that’s not peace.”

Precisely.

‘It’s the same claim he’s been making since at least 1992.’
 
James O’Brien runs through the times Netanyahu previously warned that Iran’s nuclear bomb was ‘imminent’. https://t.co/CdOHM9LxWB

The claim that Iran was "weeks away" from having nukes is being used to justify Israel's attack. But @DNIGabbard said that "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Ayatollah Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear-weapons program he suspended in 2003." https://t.co/p91HDApExx

President Trump claimed that since he “developed”  the term ‘America First,’ he has the authority to decide what it means, whether that involves war or peace with Iran.

“For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of https://t.co/epnQ0AZUDk

Tzipi Hotovely justifies the genocidal Israeli regime launching an unprovoked attack on Iran because she claims there was an imminent threat of Iran getting nuclear weapons.

#bbclaurak points out the head of US national intelligence says Iran was not building a nuclear weapon https://t.co/OBdXXL5Fn9

Israel says its Mossad smuggled drones and vehicles into Iran and then set them up today morning. Israel then flew 200 fighters into Iran to hit 100+ targets, including Natanz, the main nuclear weapon site. 6 Iranian nuclear scientists also got killed. 
https://t.co/1mQAKJZGe6

Ambassador Danon to the Security Council: "At this time when Iran is sending hundreds of ballistic missiles to population centers in Israel, ask yourself, what would happen if Iran had a nuclear bomb today - while you continue talking, we will continue with actions"

TRUMP TO WSJ: ATTACK WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE MARKET BECAUSE IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON

NEW - Trump says "people who don't want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon—that's not peace." https://t.co/P5KB3WAxKa

BREAKING: Trump has said; Attack would be great for the market because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon

Iran has been producing highly enriched uranium (20%) for at least 7 years. They’ve had a stockpile of 60% HEU for at least 6 years. It takes just a couple of weeks to go from 60% to 90%. 

If Iran really wanted a nuclear bomb, they’d have one. There’s no other special equipment https://t.co/9TpWBnQ2L4

According to a report published Doron Kadosh, Israeli intelligence provided the political leadership with a stark warning ahead of its recent operation: Iran is only weeks away from assembling a nuclear bomb, should it choose to do so. 

This assessment was based on what

DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified back in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon nor had the Supreme Leader authorized the restart of the nuclear weapons program. 

Was this theater or did something change in a couple of months?

 https://t.co/FowauTIgG4

This feels unprecedented. Iranian MP Hossein-Ali Shahriari went on state TV this morning and is publicly imploring Khamenei to change Iran's nuclear doctrine and build a nuclear weapon. https://t.co/l89MJufOYV

How Israeli intelligence agency is recruiting Pakistanis by using the name of American CIA? Why Israel tried to attack Pakistan many times and how Israeli plans failed? Will Israel use a nuclear bomb against Iran? Watch my analysis on #IsraelIranWar 👇

https://t.co/kVKZHsYckp https://t.co/wIKHXJuJ0n

Reformist journalist and editor in Iran:

"Before the Israeli attacks, I was against 60% enrichment. But the Zionist attack on my country has brought about a clear shift in my mind. I say it loudly: Iran must acquire a nuclear bomb as soon as possible. Conducting a nuclear test https://t.co/41JJTRRJLf

Donald Trump responding to Tucker Carlson and some others:

“For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon—that’s not peace.” https://t.co/aaiDxvAfKa

“Trecently told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US would consider striking Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear facility if such a move would become necessary to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon” a/c to ⁦@BarakRavid⁩  https://t.co/AxQZud3zD1

Fun Facts: In 1992, Benjamin Netanyahu boldly declared that Iran was 3-5 years away from making a nuclear bomb.

In 1995, Benjamin Netanyahu confidently declared once again that Iran was 3-5 years away from developing a nuclear bomb.

In 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu firmly asserted https://t.co/YYpXRn14qE

Statement from @DNIGabbard just 3 months ago: "The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". https://t.co/oOoRSbuVUC

This war is happening because Iran was on the verge of being able to put  a nuclear weapon on any of these ballistic missiles. 

https://t.co/Gv3ZTFkFji

NEW 🔴

Israeli and U.S. defense sources say the Israeli strike has temporarily disabled the Isfahan nuclear facility, calling it a major achievement in blocking Iran’s ability to quickly advance toward a nuclear bomb.

Israel attacked Iran after intel indicated Tehran is weeks away from nuclear weapon, @Doron_Kadosh reports; Israel monitored secret weaponization project, Iranian scientists reached testing phase of bomb components. This triggered the decision to strike. https://t.co/tdkaHe1TxH

BREAKING: Israeli media:

“The danger that Iran will quickly develop a nuclear bomb has been removed.”

REMINDER: Netanyahu convinced Trump in 2018 to withdraw US from Iran nuclear deal that Obama and allies had negotiated. That Deal would've prevented Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. All the death and destruction we are seeing now is 100% bc of Trump and Netanyahu https://t.co/Fvfm4fUSed

There are no tweets or social media activity provided for analysis at this time. Without data, no specific events or sentiments can be summarized or linked to market price movements.

No Activity Reported

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. The absence of specific content limits the ability to assess key influences on market movements at this time.

Market News Update

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Iran Nuke before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.


Will Israel or the US target Tehran?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".


1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.


2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by JJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". 

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Khamenei leaves Iran

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Khamenei leaves Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "No". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Qatar is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Qatari territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Iran strike on Qatar by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Ali Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Israel is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.

To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. 

Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.

Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.

Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

On January 14, 2026, widespread internet and mobile service outages affected customers of major U.S. telecommunications providers, including Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, across multiple states. You can read more about that here: reuters.com/business/media-telecom/verizons-network-down-thousands-users-us-downdetector-shows-2026-01-14.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting, that the January 14, 2026, internet and mobile service outages were caused by, originating from, directed by, or officially attributed to Iran or any Iranian proxy by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Accusations from the U.S. government that are hedged or expressed with ambiguity (e.g., "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count.

This market will resolve once official statements from the U.S. government , or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the January 14, 2026, outages were caused by an Iranian cyberattack. If the cause of the outages has not been attributed to Iran by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, “capture” means Khamenei is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that he is no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.

U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Iran Nuke in 2025?

Market Context

Iran Nuke in 2025?

Rules

Iran Nuke in 2025?

Market Context

Iran Nuke in 2025?

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