Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.7% implied probability against Alberta holding an independence referendum in 2026, driven by a Court of King's Bench stay issued April 10 halting signature verification for the citizen initiative petition organized by separatists like the Alberta Prosperity Project. Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation successfully argued the process threatens treaty rights without Indigenous consultation, pausing progress despite claims of surpassing the 177,732-signature threshold in late March. Premier Danielle Smith, leading the United Conservative Party government, supports provincial sovereignty within Canada but opposes separation votes, scheduling October 19 referendums instead on immigration and constitutional reform. Recent Leger polling shows separatism support at a five-year high around 30%, yet procedural, legal, and institutional barriers—including the need for legislative approval—make a ballot question unlikely absent major reversals.