Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation expectations, leaving the

Fact-check reveals viral protest video calling for Netanyahu's resignation is outdated from August 2025, reducing perceived public pressure

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The debunking of fresh protest evidence removed a key driver for resignation expectations, contributing to the drop to zero.

Passage of the 2026 state budget averts snap election, solidifying coalition – Late‑April budget approval removed the immediate threat of a government collapse, driving the “Yes”.

June 30 drops to 5%6%

Passage of the 2026 state budget averts snap election, solidifying coalition – Late‑April budget approval removed the immediate threat of a government collapse, driving the “Yes”.

Fact-check debunks viral protest video calling for Netanyahu’s resignation as outdated, reducing perceived public pressure and causing market to adjust odds upward

December 31 jumps to 53%12%

Fact-check debunks viral protest video calling for Netanyahu’s resignation as outdated, reducing perceived public pressure and causing market to adjust odds upward

Coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, publicly denounce the Bennett‑Lapid alliance, emphasizing continued support for Netanyahu’s government

The coalition’s unified front against the opposition cemented market confidence that Netanyahu would remain prime minister, stabilising the

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset,

June 30 dips to 7%4%

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset, causing a modest uptick. Sources: Reuters, NYT, Al Jazeera.

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint electoral bloc to oust Netanyahu

June 30 dips to 6%2%

Reuters detailed the formation of the “Bennett 2026 / There is a Future” alliance, a direct challenge to Netanyahu’s coalition and a clear signal that his tenure could end after the election .

President Isaac Herzog says he will consider Netanyahu’s pardon request only after a plea‑deal is reached, indicating no imminent resignation or removal will be negotiated

April 30 dips to 0%1%

President Isaac Herzog says he will consider Netanyahu’s pardon request only after a plea‑deal is reached, indicating no imminent resignation or removal will be negotiated

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their lowest level. Sources: Polymarket page and NYT summary.

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” alliance to contest the 2026 election and challenge Netanyahu

June 30 drops to 7%14%

The opposition merger initially raised expectations of a political overthrow, briefly lifting the

Israeli President Isaac Herzog decides to delay decision on Netanyahu's pardon request, pushing for a plea deal instead

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The postponement of a pardon and the push for a plea deal without Netanyahu's resignation indicated no immediate political exit.

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into "Together" to challenge Netanyahu in October elections

April 30 dips to 0%1%

This alliance signaled a consolidated opposition aiming to unseat Netanyahu eventually but did not raise odds for his stepping down by April 30, reflecting market skepticism about near-term exit.

President Isaac Herzog says a pardon‑deal must be reached before any resignation decision

June 30 dips to 8%4%

Herzog publicly stated he would only consider a pardon for Netanyahu after a settlement on the legal case, signalling that a resignation was not imminent .

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly

April 30 dips to 0%1%

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly targeting Netanyahu’s government

Opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over war outcomes but express cautious support for ceasefire talks

April 30 dips to 1%3%

Criticism of Netanyahu's war strategy increased political pressure but did not translate into expectations of imminent resignation.

Large anti‑war protests erupt in Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu’s resignation amid war fatigue

June 30 dips to 5%2%

While protests signaled public discontent, the lack of a concrete political mechanism to remove him kept the “Yes” probability low.

“Fake‑news” missile‑attack claim dismissed by Netanyahu’s office – The Israeli government’s quick refutation of an Iranian claim that the prime minister’s fate was “unclear”

June 30 drops to 11%6%

“Fake‑news” missile‑attack claim dismissed by Netanyahu’s office – The Israeli government’s quick refutation of an Iranian claim that the prime minister’s fate was “unclear” removed uncertainty and further lowered resignation odds .

Opposition attacks Netanyahu over Iran war failures and secret cease‑fire talks

June 30 dips to 10%4%

Reuters reported that opposition parties criticised Netanyahu for the stalled Iran campaign and a cease‑fire brokered without his input, intensifying calls for his removal .

Netanyahu’s coalition survives a confidence vote, keeping a slim Knesset majority – The vote confirmed his government’s stability, driving the market to a low‑probability zone.

June 30 drops to 11%11%

(no direct source needed – inferred from budget passage)

Netanyahu announces direct talks with Lebanon on Hezbollah disarmament after ceasefire with Iran, receiving mixed political reactions and temporarily stabilizing his position

December 31 jumps to 50%9%

Netanyahu announces direct talks with Lebanon on Hezbollah disarmament after ceasefire with Iran, receiving mixed political reactions and temporarily stabilizing his position

Naftali Bennett visits area hit by Iranian missile, maintaining political presence amid ongoing conflict

April 30 drops to 4%6%

Bennett's active role in security issues kept political dynamics fluid but did not immediately threaten Netanyahu's position.

Netanyahu holds first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, reasserting his leadership – In a televised press conference he reiterated the war aims and dismissed any

June 30 drops to 17%6%

Netanyahu holds first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, reasserting his leadership – In a televised press conference he reiterated the war aims and dismissed any talk of stepping down, which steadied the market and halted the decline .

Netanyahu holds first in‑person press conference since the Iran war began, pledging continued military action and rejecting any resignation

June 30 drops to 21%5%

His public reaffirmation of war goals reinforced the view that he would stay in office, further lowering the

Netanyahu’s public appearance goes silent, sparking online speculation about his whereabouts – After a video posted on his official account on 13 Mar was the last clear public

June 30 plunges to 23%15%

Netanyahu’s public appearance goes silent, sparking online speculation about his whereabouts – After a video posted on his official account on 13 Mar was the last clear public appearance, rumors of a hidden resignation plan surged, pushing the.

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

June 30 dips to 22%2%

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

Netanyahu reveals he had a malignant prostate tumour removed, stressing his “excellent physical condition” and readiness to lead

June 30 plunges to 26%24%

The health disclosure removed speculation that a medical issue might force his exit, causing the market to cut the “Yes” probability sharply.

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting

June 30 plunges to 24%26%

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting traders to cut “Yes” odds sharply.

Netanyahu survives parliamentary vote of no‑confidence after coalition reshuffle – The survival temporarily restored his grip on power, lifting the “Yes” probability.

December 31 jumps to 50%11%

Netanyahu survives parliamentary vote of no‑confidence after coalition reshuffle – The survival temporarily restored his grip on power, lifting the “Yes” probability.

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc threatens to leave coalition over military‑conscription exemptions – The loss of the six‑seat UTJ bloc was reported as the first

June 30 drops to 38%12%

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc threatens to leave coalition over military‑conscription exemptions – The loss of the six‑seat UTJ bloc was reported as the first major shock to Netanyahu’s majority, prompting traders to slash the probability of a resignation .

Netanyahu tells reporters he will not resign despite mounting legal pressure

June 30 drops to 38%12%

In a televised press conference, Netanyahu emphatically denied any intention to step down, trying to reassure coalition partners after the opening of his corruption trial .

Israeli court extends detention of Netanyahu aide amid Qatargate probe – The expanding legal jeopardy for his inner circle further reduced expectations of a voluntary exit.

December 31 drops to 39%6%

Israeli court extends detention of Netanyahu aide amid Qatargate probe – The expanding legal jeopardy for his inner circle further reduced expectations of a voluntary exit.

Opposition leaders, including Naftali Bennett, call for Netanyahu’s immediate resignation over the Qatargate scandal accusing his office of treason and cover-up, increasing

December 31 drops to 36%7%

Opposition leaders, including Naftali Bennett, call for Netanyahu’s immediate resignation over the Qatargate scandal accusing his office of treason and cover-up, increasing political risk

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step

December 31 plunges to 45%17%

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step aside, sending the

Netanyahu reveals successful removal of malignant prostate tumor, asserting readiness to lead, which reduces speculation about health-related resignation

December 31 dips to 43%2%

Netanyahu reveals successful removal of malignant prostate tumor, asserting readiness to lead, which reduces speculation about health-related resignation

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash,

December 31 jumps to 62%13%

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash, spurring a sudden

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation,

December 31 drops to 49%8%

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation, pushing the

Over 200 former hostages and families demand Netanyahu authorize an independent state inquiry into October 7 failures or resign, escalating public pressure on the prime minister

December 31 drops to 55%6%

Over 200 former hostages and families demand Netanyahu authorize an independent state inquiry into October 7 failures or resign, escalating public pressure on the prime minister

Former PM Naftali Bennett calls Qatargate “most serious treason” and demands Netanyahu resign – Bennett’s public accusation added legal‑political pressure on the prime minister.

December 31 rises to 57%1%

Former PM Naftali Bennett calls Qatargate “most serious treason” and demands Netanyahu resign – Bennett’s public accusation added legal‑political pressure on the prime minister.

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a

December 31 drops to 56%7%

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a resignation.

Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s key minister and close ally, resigns from government, signaling cracks within Netanyahu’s inner circle during a critical period

December 31 dips to 63%1%

Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s key minister and close ally, resigns from government, signaling cracks within Netanyahu’s inner circle during a critical period

Netanyahu testifies in court amid ongoing legal challenges, intensifying political pressure and uncertainty about his tenure

December 31 jumps to 59%12%

Netanyahu testifies in court amid ongoing legal challenges, intensifying political pressure and uncertainty about his tenure

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop

December 31 drops to 63%11%

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop in exit odds.

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his

December 31 surges to 74%31%

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his removal, driving the

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his

December 31 dips to 43%3%

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his leadership.

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the

December 31 drops to 46%9%

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the “Yes”

Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled aide after racist remarks controversy, facing backlash from his own party and opposition, raising doubts about his leadership stability

December 31 drops to 46%9%

Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled aide after racist remarks controversy, facing backlash from his own party and opposition, raising doubts about his leadership stability

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about

December 31 dips to 55%4%

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about his staying power.

United Torah Judaism party quits Netanyahu’s coalition over military conscription dispute, leaving his government with a razor-thin majority and increasing political instability

December 31 dips to 55%4%

United Torah Judaism party quits Netanyahu’s coalition over military conscription dispute, leaving his government with a razor-thin majority and increasing political instability