US-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced incremental diplomatic signals, including a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire around April 10 and Ukraine's intelligence chief noting converging positions on territorial limits despite maximalist stances. These developments, alongside prisoner swaps and Zelenskyy's energy truce proposals, underpin trader consensus implying a 53.5% chance of a broader ceasefire by end-2027, reflecting war fatigue and potential US pressure via envoys like Witkoff and Kushner. However, recent Russian strikes killing dozens in Kyiv and Odesa, coupled with Moscow's insistence on Donbas cessions, sustain the close contest. Battlefield stalemates or resumed high-level summits could tip odds toward yes, while escalations or Iran distractions might favor no.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$23,953 거래량
$23,953 거래량
2027.12.31
예
$23,953 거래량
$23,953 거래량
2027.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.US-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced incremental diplomatic signals, including a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire around April 10 and Ukraine's intelligence chief noting converging positions on territorial limits despite maximalist stances. These developments, alongside prisoner swaps and Zelenskyy's energy truce proposals, underpin trader consensus implying a 53.5% chance of a broader ceasefire by end-2027, reflecting war fatigue and potential US pressure via envoys like Witkoff and Kushner. However, recent Russian strikes killing dozens in Kyiv and Odesa, coupled with Moscow's insistence on Donbas cessions, sustain the close contest. Battlefield stalemates or resumed high-level summits could tip odds toward yes, while escalations or Iran distractions might favor no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
거래량
$23,953종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.US-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced incremental diplomatic signals, including a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire around April 10 and Ukraine's intelligence chief noting converging positions on territorial limits despite maximalist stances. These developments, alongside prisoner swaps and Zelenskyy's energy truce proposals, underpin trader consensus implying a 53.5% chance of a broader ceasefire by end-2027, reflecting war fatigue and potential US pressure via envoys like Witkoff and Kushner. However, recent Russian strikes killing dozens in Kyiv and Odesa, coupled with Moscow's insistence on Donbas cessions, sustain the close contest. Battlefield stalemates or resumed high-level summits could tip odds toward yes, while escalations or Iran distractions might favor no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
거래량
$23,953종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have produced incremental diplomatic signals, including a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire around April 10 and Ukraine's intelligence chief noting converging positions on territorial limits despite maximalist stances. These developments, alongside prisoner swaps and Zelenskyy's energy truce proposals, underpin trader consensus implying a 53.5% chance of a broader ceasefire by end-2027, reflecting war fatigue and potential US pressure via envoys like Witkoff and Kushner. However, recent Russian strikes killing dozens in Kyiv and Odesa, coupled with Moscow's insistence on Donbas cessions, sustain the close contest. Battlefield stalemates or resumed high-level summits could tip odds toward yes, while escalations or Iran distractions might favor no.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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