The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience amid severe shocks underpins the strong trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests triggered by economic crisis and currency collapse in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and lethal force by early 2026, with no elite defections or sustained fractures in security forces. Subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes in the 2026 conflict, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompted a rapid constitutional transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and reaffirmed IRGC dominance without triggering systemic breakdown. Analysts note the regime's proven capacity for repression and adaptation, even in a weakened state, as the primary factor sustaining expectations of continuity through the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$19,625,245 거래량
$19,625,245 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$19,625,245 거래량
$19,625,245 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience amid severe shocks underpins the strong trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests triggered by economic crisis and currency collapse in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and lethal force by early 2026, with no elite defections or sustained fractures in security forces. Subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes in the 2026 conflict, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompted a rapid constitutional transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and reaffirmed IRGC dominance without triggering systemic breakdown. Analysts note the regime's proven capacity for repression and adaptation, even in a weakened state, as the primary factor sustaining expectations of continuity through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
거래량
$19,625,245종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience amid severe shocks underpins the strong trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests triggered by economic crisis and currency collapse in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and lethal force by early 2026, with no elite defections or sustained fractures in security forces. Subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes in the 2026 conflict, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompted a rapid constitutional transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and reaffirmed IRGC dominance without triggering systemic breakdown. Analysts note the regime's proven capacity for repression and adaptation, even in a weakened state, as the primary factor sustaining expectations of continuity through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$19,625,245종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience amid severe shocks underpins the strong trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests triggered by economic crisis and currency collapse in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and lethal force by early 2026, with no elite defections or sustained fractures in security forces. Subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes in the 2026 conflict, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompted a rapid constitutional transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and reaffirmed IRGC dominance without triggering systemic breakdown. Analysts note the regime's proven capacity for repression and adaptation, even in a weakened state, as the primary factor sustaining expectations of continuity through the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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