Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 60.5% for the March market, reflecting the absence of key triggers through March 31 amid a quiet period on multiple fronts. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% during its March 18 meeting despite one dissenting vote for a cut, averting a rate cut. No Iranian regime collapse occurred despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, President Trump issued no national emergency declaration on election interference, the Insurrection Act went uninvoked, and the SAVE Act was not signed into law. The sole uncertainty hangs on the Texas U.S. Senate race: Democrat James Talarico secured his primary outright on March 3, but incumbent Republican John Cornyn faces a May 26 runoff against Ken Paxton after failing to win a majority; recent April polls show Paxton leading by 8 points, boosting "Nothing" odds as both are unlikely to emerge as general election nominees.