Trader consensus on a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 remains closely balanced at around 50% implied probability for Yes, driven by Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025—which built on existing Israel ties but failed to resolve the market—offset by stalled progress on marquee candidates like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Recent diplomatic pushes under the Trump administration, including incentives tied to Gaza ceasefire stability and Iran containment, have sustained optimism, yet regional headwinds persist: fragile truces, West Bank annexation debates, Palestinian statehood advocacy at the UN, and anti-normalization public opinion in Gulf states. Tipping factors include breakthroughs in Saudi-Israel bilateral talks, successful summits, or fresh U.S. security pacts; conversely, escalation in Gaza or Iran proxy conflicts could solidify No odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$101,395 거래량
$101,395 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$101,395 거래량
$101,395 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 remains closely balanced at around 50% implied probability for Yes, driven by Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025—which built on existing Israel ties but failed to resolve the market—offset by stalled progress on marquee candidates like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Recent diplomatic pushes under the Trump administration, including incentives tied to Gaza ceasefire stability and Iran containment, have sustained optimism, yet regional headwinds persist: fragile truces, West Bank annexation debates, Palestinian statehood advocacy at the UN, and anti-normalization public opinion in Gulf states. Tipping factors include breakthroughs in Saudi-Israel bilateral talks, successful summits, or fresh U.S. security pacts; conversely, escalation in Gaza or Iran proxy conflicts could solidify No odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
거래량
$101,395종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 remains closely balanced at around 50% implied probability for Yes, driven by Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025—which built on existing Israel ties but failed to resolve the market—offset by stalled progress on marquee candidates like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Recent diplomatic pushes under the Trump administration, including incentives tied to Gaza ceasefire stability and Iran containment, have sustained optimism, yet regional headwinds persist: fragile truces, West Bank annexation debates, Palestinian statehood advocacy at the UN, and anti-normalization public opinion in Gulf states. Tipping factors include breakthroughs in Saudi-Israel bilateral talks, successful summits, or fresh U.S. security pacts; conversely, escalation in Gaza or Iran proxy conflicts could solidify No odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$101,395종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 remains closely balanced at around 50% implied probability for Yes, driven by Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025—which built on existing Israel ties but failed to resolve the market—offset by stalled progress on marquee candidates like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Recent diplomatic pushes under the Trump administration, including incentives tied to Gaza ceasefire stability and Iran containment, have sustained optimism, yet regional headwinds persist: fragile truces, West Bank annexation debates, Palestinian statehood advocacy at the UN, and anti-normalization public opinion in Gulf states. Tipping factors include breakthroughs in Saudi-Israel bilateral talks, successful summits, or fresh U.S. security pacts; conversely, escalation in Gaza or Iran proxy conflicts could solidify No odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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