Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns overwhelming probability to the Iranian regime surviving past May 31, driven by its security apparatus—including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—successfully containing 2025–2026 protests sparked by currency collapse, inflation, and damages from US-Israeli airstrikes in February–March. Recent April developments, such as executions of dissidents, over 1,000 arrests for online activity, and warnings against internal dissent amid fragile ceasefire talks, signal sustained coercive control without mass defections or opposition unification. US intelligence assessments through mid-March confirm the regime remains intact, albeit degraded. Realistic shifters include IRGC fractures, uncontained uprisings, or leadership vacuum post-succession strains, though historical resilience bolsters trader confidence.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,881,727 거래량
$1,881,727 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$1,881,727 거래량
$1,881,727 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns overwhelming probability to the Iranian regime surviving past May 31, driven by its security apparatus—including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—successfully containing 2025–2026 protests sparked by currency collapse, inflation, and damages from US-Israeli airstrikes in February–March. Recent April developments, such as executions of dissidents, over 1,000 arrests for online activity, and warnings against internal dissent amid fragile ceasefire talks, signal sustained coercive control without mass defections or opposition unification. US intelligence assessments through mid-March confirm the regime remains intact, albeit degraded. Realistic shifters include IRGC fractures, uncontained uprisings, or leadership vacuum post-succession strains, though historical resilience bolsters trader confidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
거래량
$1,881,727종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns overwhelming probability to the Iranian regime surviving past May 31, driven by its security apparatus—including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—successfully containing 2025–2026 protests sparked by currency collapse, inflation, and damages from US-Israeli airstrikes in February–March. Recent April developments, such as executions of dissidents, over 1,000 arrests for online activity, and warnings against internal dissent amid fragile ceasefire talks, signal sustained coercive control without mass defections or opposition unification. US intelligence assessments through mid-March confirm the regime remains intact, albeit degraded. Realistic shifters include IRGC fractures, uncontained uprisings, or leadership vacuum post-succession strains, though historical resilience bolsters trader confidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,885,147종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns overwhelming probability to the Iranian regime surviving past May 31, driven by its security apparatus—including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—successfully containing 2025–2026 protests sparked by currency collapse, inflation, and damages from US-Israeli airstrikes in February–March. Recent April developments, such as executions of dissidents, over 1,000 arrests for online activity, and warnings against internal dissent amid fragile ceasefire talks, signal sustained coercive control without mass defections or opposition unification. US intelligence assessments through mid-March confirm the regime remains intact, albeit degraded. Realistic shifters include IRGC fractures, uncontained uprisings, or leadership vacuum post-succession strains, though historical resilience bolsters trader confidence.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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