Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for "No" on Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April 2026, reflecting the complete absence of any public Iranian commitment amid escalating US-Iran conflict dynamics. A US naval blockade imposed April 13 intercepted Iran-linked vessels, while Tehran enforced IRGC approvals and maritime rules, slashing transits to a trickle—down over 90% per maritime trackers—and spiking shipping insurance premiums 20-fold. Temporary ceasefires enabled limited commercial passages, such as on April 17, but these were conditional and far short of unrestricted access carrying one-fifth of global oil flows. With April expired, tail risks include disputed interpretations of partial reopenings or last-minute diplomatic disclosures, though none have emerged to challenge the skin-in-the-game crowd's verdict.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$438,400 거래량
$438,400 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$438,400 거래량
$438,400 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for "No" on Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April 2026, reflecting the complete absence of any public Iranian commitment amid escalating US-Iran conflict dynamics. A US naval blockade imposed April 13 intercepted Iran-linked vessels, while Tehran enforced IRGC approvals and maritime rules, slashing transits to a trickle—down over 90% per maritime trackers—and spiking shipping insurance premiums 20-fold. Temporary ceasefires enabled limited commercial passages, such as on April 17, but these were conditional and far short of unrestricted access carrying one-fifth of global oil flows. With April expired, tail risks include disputed interpretations of partial reopenings or last-minute diplomatic disclosures, though none have emerged to challenge the skin-in-the-game crowd's verdict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
거래량
$438,400종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for "No" on Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April 2026, reflecting the complete absence of any public Iranian commitment amid escalating US-Iran conflict dynamics. A US naval blockade imposed April 13 intercepted Iran-linked vessels, while Tehran enforced IRGC approvals and maritime rules, slashing transits to a trickle—down over 90% per maritime trackers—and spiking shipping insurance premiums 20-fold. Temporary ceasefires enabled limited commercial passages, such as on April 17, but these were conditional and far short of unrestricted access carrying one-fifth of global oil flows. With April expired, tail risks include disputed interpretations of partial reopenings or last-minute diplomatic disclosures, though none have emerged to challenge the skin-in-the-game crowd's verdict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$438,400종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for "No" on Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April 2026, reflecting the complete absence of any public Iranian commitment amid escalating US-Iran conflict dynamics. A US naval blockade imposed April 13 intercepted Iran-linked vessels, while Tehran enforced IRGC approvals and maritime rules, slashing transits to a trickle—down over 90% per maritime trackers—and spiking shipping insurance premiums 20-fold. Temporary ceasefires enabled limited commercial passages, such as on April 17, but these were conditional and far short of unrestricted access carrying one-fifth of global oil flows. With April expired, tail risks include disputed interpretations of partial reopenings or last-minute diplomatic disclosures, though none have emerged to challenge the skin-in-the-game crowd's verdict.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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