Market icon

次のトランプ内閣離脱者は誰でしょうか?

Market icon

次のトランプ内閣離脱者は誰でしょうか?

クリスティ・ノーム 100.0%

J.D.バンス <1%

スコット・ベッセント <1%

ダグ・バーガム <1%

Polymarket

$711,425 Vol.

クリスティ・ノーム 100.0%

J.D.バンス <1%

スコット・ベッセント <1%

ダグ・バーガム <1%

Polymarket

$711,425 Vol.

J.D.バンス

$14,536 Vol.

いいえ

スコット・ベッセント

$24,803 Vol.

いいえ

ダグ・バーガム

$27,782 Vol.

いいえ

ローリ・チャベス=デレマー

$36,538 Vol.

いいえ

ダグ・コリンズ

$28,579 Vol.

いいえ

クリスティ・ノーム

$104,437 Vol.

はい

マイク・ウォルツ

$21,347 Vol.

いいえ

2027年以前には誰もいない

$45,488 Vol.

いいえ

マルコ・ルビオ

$21,519 Vol.

いいえ

ピート・ヘグセス

$21,705 Vol.

いいえ

パム・ボンディ

$21,943 Vol.

いいえ

ブルック・ローリンズ

$70,205 Vol.

いいえ

ハワード・ルトニック

$20,731 Vol.

いいえ

ロバート・F・ケネディ・ジュニア

$21,141 Vol.

いいえ

スコット・ターナー

$16,302 Vol.

いいえ

ショーン・ダフィー

$26,447 Vol.

いいえ

クリス・ライト

$25,017 Vol.

いいえ

リンダ・マクマホン

$26,834 Vol.

いいえ

リー・ゼルディン

$27,338 Vol.

いいえ

スージー・ワイルズ

$15,925 Vol.

いいえ

トゥルシー・ギャバード

$20,291 Vol.

いいえ

ラッセル・T・ヴォート

$15,886 Vol.

いいえ

ジョン・ラトクリフ

$13,186 Vol.

いいえ

ジャミーソン・グリアー

$24,061 Vol.

いいえ

ケリー・ロフラー

$19,384 Vol.

いいえ

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
音量
$711,425
終了日
Dec 31, 2026
マーケット開始日
Feb 4, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"次のトランプ内閣離脱者は誰でしょうか?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "クリスティ・ノーム" at 100%, followed by "J.D.バンス" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "次のトランプ内閣離脱者は誰でしょうか?" has generated $711.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "次のトランプ内閣離脱者は誰でしょうか?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "次のトランプ内閣離脱者は誰でしょうか?" is "クリスティ・ノーム" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "J.D.バンス" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "次のトランプ内閣離脱者は誰でしょうか?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.