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政治·キャビネット

ハワード・ラトニックが3月31日までに商務長官に？

Market icon
政治·キャビネット

ハワード・ラトニックが3月31日までに商務長官に？

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$74,166 Vol.

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$74,166 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, continues to serve actively over a year into President Trump's second term, driving the 99.4% "No" trader consensus that he will not depart by March 31. Recent Democratic letters, including Rep. Mike Levin's mid-March demands for resignation over alleged Epstein ties revealed in DOJ files and his firm's tariff-related profits following a Supreme Court ruling, have generated partisan pressure but elicited no White House response or procedural shifts like a dismissal or withdrawal announcement. Lutnick's ongoing engagements, such as recent EXIM Conference appearances and Section 232 trade probes, underscore positional stability. Only an abrupt presidential firing, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal could realistically alter this before resolution.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, continues to serve actively over a year into President Trump's second term, driving the 99.4% "No" trader consensus that he will not depart by March 31. Recent Democratic letters, including Rep. Mike Levin's mid-March demands for resignation over alleged Epstein ties revealed in DOJ files and his firm's tariff-related profits following a Supreme Court ruling, have generated partisan pressure but elicited no White House response or procedural shifts like a dismissal or withdrawal announcement. Lutnick's ongoing engagements, such as recent EXIM Conference appearances and Section 232 trade probes, underscore positional stability. Only an abrupt presidential firing, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal could realistically alter this before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, continues to serve actively over a year into President Trump's second term, driving the 99.4% "No" trader consensus that he will not depart by March 31. Recent Democratic letters, including Rep. Mike Levin's mid-March demands for resignation over alleged Epstein ties revealed in DOJ files and his firm's tariff-related profits following a Supreme Court ruling, have generated partisan pressure but elicited no White House response or procedural shifts like a dismissal or withdrawal announcement. Lutnick's ongoing engagements, such as recent EXIM Conference appearances and Section 232 trade probes, underscore positional stability. Only an abrupt presidential firing, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal could realistically alter this before resolution.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, continues to serve actively over a year into President Trump's second term, driving the 99.4% "No" trader consensus that he will not depart by March 31. Recent Democratic letters, including Rep. Mike Levin's mid-March demands for resignation over alleged Epstein ties revealed in DOJ files and his firm's tariff-related profits following a Supreme Court ruling, have generated partisan pressure but elicited no White House response or procedural shifts like a dismissal or withdrawal announcement. Lutnick's ongoing engagements, such as recent EXIM Conference appearances and Section 232 trade probes, underscore positional stability. Only an abrupt presidential firing, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal could realistically alter this before resolution.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ハワード・ラトニックが3月31日までに商務長官に？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ハワード・ルトニックが3月31日までに商務長官を退任？」で1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、1¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に1%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ハワード・ラトニックが3月31日までに商務長官に？」は$74.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 12, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ハワード・ラトニックが3月31日までに商務長官に？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「ハワード・ラトニックが3月31日までに商務長官に？」の現在のリーダーは「ハワード・ルトニックが3月31日までに商務長官を退任？」でわずか1%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

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