Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 90.6% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his incumbency advantage after winning the district's special election in February, superior fundraising totaling $3.2 million versus Al Green's $1.2 million, and consistent poll leads including a recent NYT aggregate showing him ahead 41%-35%. Recent catalysts include Menefee's composed performance in the May 4 debate amid Green's attacks on his donor ties, endorsements from Houston Chronicle and local Democrats, and momentum from his Special Elections Timeliness Act introduction amid voting rights concerns post-Supreme Court ruling. Green's long tenure since 2005 and backers like Judge Lina Hidalgo provide a base, but redistricting—forcing this incumbent clash in the majority-Black Houston district—bolsters Menefee's edge; challenges could arise from late Green turnout surge, scandal, or attack ads swaying undecideds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日クリスチャン・メネフィー 90.7%
アル・グリーン 9.4%
グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%
$27,383 Vol.
$27,383 Vol.
クリスチャン・メネフィー
91%
アル・グリーン
9%
グレッチェン・ブラウン
<1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ
<1%
クリスチャン・メネフィー 90.7%
アル・グリーン 9.4%
グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%
$27,383 Vol.
$27,383 Vol.
クリスチャン・メネフィー
91%
アル・グリーン
9%
グレッチェン・ブラウン
<1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 90.6% implied probability in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his incumbency advantage after winning the district's special election in February, superior fundraising totaling $3.2 million versus Al Green's $1.2 million, and consistent poll leads including a recent NYT aggregate showing him ahead 41%-35%. Recent catalysts include Menefee's composed performance in the May 4 debate amid Green's attacks on his donor ties, endorsements from Houston Chronicle and local Democrats, and momentum from his Special Elections Timeliness Act introduction amid voting rights concerns post-Supreme Court ruling. Green's long tenure since 2005 and backers like Judge Lina Hidalgo provide a base, but redistricting—forcing this incumbent clash in the majority-Black Houston district—bolsters Menefee's edge; challenges could arise from late Green turnout surge, scandal, or attack ads swaying undecideds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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