The S&P 500 has surged over 22% year-to-date to recent highs near 5,850, propelled by stellar Q3 earnings beats from megacap tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, alongside the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September that solidified expectations for two additional quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, a late-week pullback to around 5,760 reflects rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tempering risk appetite amid stretched valuations at 22 times forward earnings. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including October CPI data on Thursday, November nonfarm payrolls, the FOMC meeting on November 7, and the U.S. presidential election, all capable of swaying the index's trajectory toward or away from 6,000 by December 31. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds capture this trader consensus backed by real capital.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 9,300ドル
6%
↑ 8,600ドル
9%
↑ 8,200ドル
13%
↑ 7,800ドル
28%
↑ 7,600ドル
37%
↑ 7,400ドル
39%
↓ $6,400
96%
↓ 6,200ドル
83%
↓ 5,800ドル
74%
↓ 5,200ドル
45%
↓ 4,500ドル
17%
$7,388 Vol.
↑ 9,300ドル
$0 Vol.
6%
↑ 8,600ドル
$0 Vol.
9%
↑ 8,200ドル
$0 Vol.
13%
↑ 7,800ドル
$328 Vol.
28%
↑ 7,600ドル
$0 Vol.
37%
↑ 7,400ドル
$0 Vol.
39%
↓ $6,400
$1,490 Vol.
96%
↓ 6,200ドル
$1,308 Vol.
83%
↓ 5,800ドル
$1,307 Vol.
74%
↓ 5,200ドル
$2,955 Vol.
45%
↓ 4,500ドル
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 has surged over 22% year-to-date to recent highs near 5,850, propelled by stellar Q3 earnings beats from megacap tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, alongside the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September that solidified expectations for two additional quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, a late-week pullback to around 5,760 reflects rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tempering risk appetite amid stretched valuations at 22 times forward earnings. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including October CPI data on Thursday, November nonfarm payrolls, the FOMC meeting on November 7, and the U.S. presidential election, all capable of swaying the index's trajectory toward or away from 6,000 by December 31. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds capture this trader consensus backed by real capital.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:31 PM ET
音量
$7,388終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 has surged over 22% year-to-date to recent highs near 5,850, propelled by stellar Q3 earnings beats from megacap tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, alongside the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September that solidified expectations for two additional quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, a late-week pullback to around 5,760 reflects rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tempering risk appetite amid stretched valuations at 22 times forward earnings. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including October CPI data on Thursday, November nonfarm payrolls, the FOMC meeting on November 7, and the U.S. presidential election, all capable of swaying the index's trajectory toward or away from 6,000 by December 31. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds capture this trader consensus backed by real capital.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
音量
$7,388終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 has surged over 22% year-to-date to recent highs near 5,850, propelled by stellar Q3 earnings beats from megacap tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, alongside the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September that solidified expectations for two additional quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, a late-week pullback to around 5,760 reflects rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tempering risk appetite amid stretched valuations at 22 times forward earnings. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including October CPI data on Thursday, November nonfarm payrolls, the FOMC meeting on November 7, and the U.S. presidential election, all capable of swaying the index's trajectory toward or away from 6,000 by December 31. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds capture this trader consensus backed by real capital.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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