Market icon
財務·新規から非表示

S&P 500 （ SPX ）は2026年末に何を締めくくりますか？

Market icon
財務·新規から非表示

S&P 500 （ SPX ）は2026年末に何を締めくくりますか？

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

6,000ドル未満 38%

6,500〜7,000ドル 19%

7,000～7,500ドル 19%

6,000～6,500ドル 17%

Polymarket

$11,179 Vol.

6,000ドル未満 38%

6,500〜7,000ドル 19%

7,000～7,500ドル 19%

6,000～6,500ドル 17%

Polymarket

$11,179 Vol.

6,000ドル未満

$6,481 Vol.

38%

6,000～6,500ドル

$854 Vol.

17%

6,500〜7,000ドル

$1,137 Vol.

19%

7,000～7,500ドル

$564 Vol.

19%

7,500～8,000ドル

$985 Vol.

9%

8,000ドル超

$1,158 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarket traders price a modest S&P 500 trajectory to end-2026, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations and policy risks despite recent post-election gains. The index surged above 6,000 following Donald Trump's victory, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus boosting corporate earnings growth (projected at 12-15% annually through 2026). However, forward P/E ratios near 25x, potential tariff-driven inflation, and ballooning U.S. deficits cap enthusiasm, concentrating 34% odds in $6,500-$7,500 bins. The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut to 4.50-4.75% funds rate supports a soft landing, but upcoming December FOMC, Q4 earnings, and CPI releases will shape rate path expectations critical to equity multiples.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「S&P 500 （ SPX ）は2026年末に何を締めくくりますか？」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「6,000ドル未満」で38%、次いで「6,500〜7,000ドル」が19%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、38¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に38%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「S&P 500 （ SPX ）は2026年末に何を締めくくりますか？」は$11.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 7, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「S&P 500 （ SPX ）は2026年末に何を締めくくりますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「S&P 500 （ SPX ）は2026年末に何を締めくくりますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「6,000ドル未満」で38%であり、市場がこの結果に38%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「6,500〜7,000ドル」で19%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「S&P 500 （ SPX ）は2026年末に何を締めくくりますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。