Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term, with the next scheduled general election set for no later than August 2027. Recent regional contests in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León produced gains for the Partido Popular and Vox while eroding PSOE support, yet these outcomes have not produced a parliamentary crisis or successful no-confidence motion capable of forcing dissolution. Negotiations over the 2026 General State Budget and continued reliance on regional parties such as Junts remain delicate but have not yet prompted Sánchez to invoke his constitutional authority to dissolve the Cortes. Traders therefore assign a 72.5 percent probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of any immediate trigger that would override the government’s preference for stability through the remainder of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$20,114 Vol.
$20,114 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$20,114 Vol.
$20,114 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term, with the next scheduled general election set for no later than August 2027. Recent regional contests in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León produced gains for the Partido Popular and Vox while eroding PSOE support, yet these outcomes have not produced a parliamentary crisis or successful no-confidence motion capable of forcing dissolution. Negotiations over the 2026 General State Budget and continued reliance on regional parties such as Junts remain delicate but have not yet prompted Sánchez to invoke his constitutional authority to dissolve the Cortes. Traders therefore assign a 72.5 percent probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of any immediate trigger that would override the government’s preference for stability through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
音量
$20,114終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term, with the next scheduled general election set for no later than August 2027. Recent regional contests in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León produced gains for the Partido Popular and Vox while eroding PSOE support, yet these outcomes have not produced a parliamentary crisis or successful no-confidence motion capable of forcing dissolution. Negotiations over the 2026 General State Budget and continued reliance on regional parties such as Junts remain delicate but have not yet prompted Sánchez to invoke his constitutional authority to dissolve the Cortes. Traders therefore assign a 72.5 percent probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of any immediate trigger that would override the government’s preference for stability through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,114終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly stated his intent to complete the full legislative term, with the next scheduled general election set for no later than August 2027. Recent regional contests in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León produced gains for the Partido Popular and Vox while eroding PSOE support, yet these outcomes have not produced a parliamentary crisis or successful no-confidence motion capable of forcing dissolution. Negotiations over the 2026 General State Budget and continued reliance on regional parties such as Junts remain delicate but have not yet prompted Sánchez to invoke his constitutional authority to dissolve the Cortes. Traders therefore assign a 72.5 percent probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of any immediate trigger that would override the government’s preference for stability through the remainder of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問