Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional parliament election, including GESOP (May 10) projecting PSOE-A 24-27 seats and 40dB (May 11) estimating 26-28, anchor trader consensus around 27-29 seats at 49.5% implied probability, with 24-26 at 29.5%. These ranges reflect PSOE-A's persistent 20-26% vote share amid national party headwinds under leader María Jesús Montero, contrasting incumbent PP's 40-44% support nearing absolute majority under Juanma Moreno. Proportional representation via d'Hondt in eight provinces favors larger parties, while PSOE-A's decline from 30 seats in 2022 stems from recent surveys showing left-wing vote fragmentation to Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. Final campaign debates and turnout in battleground provinces like Seville could tip projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日27-29 55%
24-26 31%
21-23 11.6%
30-32 6.4%
新規
新規
2026/05/17
<21
3%
21-23
11%
24-26
31%
27-29
51%
30-32
6%
33+
3%
27-29 55%
24-26 31%
21-23 11.6%
30-32 6.4%
新規
新規
2026/05/17
<21
$379 Vol.
3%
21-23
$334 Vol.
11%
24-26
$126 Vol.
31%
27-29
$442 Vol.
51%
30-32
$153 Vol.
6%
33+
$1,629 Vol.
3%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional parliament election, including GESOP (May 10) projecting PSOE-A 24-27 seats and 40dB (May 11) estimating 26-28, anchor trader consensus around 27-29 seats at 49.5% implied probability, with 24-26 at 29.5%. These ranges reflect PSOE-A's persistent 20-26% vote share amid national party headwinds under leader María Jesús Montero, contrasting incumbent PP's 40-44% support nearing absolute majority under Juanma Moreno. Proportional representation via d'Hondt in eight provinces favors larger parties, while PSOE-A's decline from 30 seats in 2022 stems from recent surveys showing left-wing vote fragmentation to Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. Final campaign debates and turnout in battleground provinces like Seville could tip projections.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 7:41 PM ET
音量
$3,063終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional parliament election, including GESOP (May 10) projecting PSOE-A 24-27 seats and 40dB (May 11) estimating 26-28, anchor trader consensus around 27-29 seats at 49.5% implied probability, with 24-26 at 29.5%. These ranges reflect PSOE-A's persistent 20-26% vote share amid national party headwinds under leader María Jesús Montero, contrasting incumbent PP's 40-44% support nearing absolute majority under Juanma Moreno. Proportional representation via d'Hondt in eight provinces favors larger parties, while PSOE-A's decline from 30 seats in 2022 stems from recent surveys showing left-wing vote fragmentation to Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. Final campaign debates and turnout in battleground provinces like Seville could tip projections.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
音量
$3,063終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for the May 17 Andalusian regional parliament election, including GESOP (May 10) projecting PSOE-A 24-27 seats and 40dB (May 11) estimating 26-28, anchor trader consensus around 27-29 seats at 49.5% implied probability, with 24-26 at 29.5%. These ranges reflect PSOE-A's persistent 20-26% vote share amid national party headwinds under leader María Jesús Montero, contrasting incumbent PP's 40-44% support nearing absolute majority under Juanma Moreno. Proportional representation via d'Hondt in eight provinces favors larger parties, while PSOE-A's decline from 30 seats in 2022 stems from recent surveys showing left-wing vote fragmentation to Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. Final campaign debates and turnout in battleground provinces like Seville could tip projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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