Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability that M&T Bank (MTB) will not beat Q1 2026 GAAP EPS consensus of $4.02–$4.08, set for release April 15, reflecting caution despite a 20% year-over-year growth bar from $3.38 and tailwinds like improving net interest margins and a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization on March 30. Recent beats in three of four prior quarters (Q2–Q4 2025 surprises of 5.7%–9.8%) contrast with Q1 misses in 2025 and 2024, fueling skepticism amid softer regional bank loan demand and potential credit provision volatility. Key swing factors include net interest income trajectory versus deposit cost pressures, with full-year 2026 EPS eyed at $18.77.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/04/15
はい
新規
新規
2026/04/15
As of market creation, M&T Bank is estimated to release earnings on April 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for M&T Bank's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if M&T Bank reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If M&T Bank releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability that M&T Bank (MTB) will not beat Q1 2026 GAAP EPS consensus of $4.02–$4.08, set for release April 15, reflecting caution despite a 20% year-over-year growth bar from $3.38 and tailwinds like improving net interest margins and a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization on March 30. Recent beats in three of four prior quarters (Q2–Q4 2025 surprises of 5.7%–9.8%) contrast with Q1 misses in 2025 and 2024, fueling skepticism amid softer regional bank loan demand and potential credit provision volatility. Key swing factors include net interest income trajectory versus deposit cost pressures, with full-year 2026 EPS eyed at $18.77.
As of market creation, M&T Bank is estimated to release earnings on April 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for M&T Bank's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if M&T Bank reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If M&T Bank releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If M&T Bank releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
音量
$19終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, M&T Bank is estimated to release earnings on April 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for M&T Bank's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if M&T Bank reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If M&T Bank releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability that M&T Bank (MTB) will not beat Q1 2026 GAAP EPS consensus of $4.02–$4.08, set for release April 15, reflecting caution despite a 20% year-over-year growth bar from $3.38 and tailwinds like improving net interest margins and a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization on March 30. Recent beats in three of four prior quarters (Q2–Q4 2025 surprises of 5.7%–9.8%) contrast with Q1 misses in 2025 and 2024, fueling skepticism amid softer regional bank loan demand and potential credit provision volatility. Key swing factors include net interest income trajectory versus deposit cost pressures, with full-year 2026 EPS eyed at $18.77.
As of market creation, M&T Bank is estimated to release earnings on April 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for M&T Bank's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.00 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if M&T Bank reports GAAP EPS greater than $4.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If M&T Bank releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If M&T Bank releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
音量
$19終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability that M&T Bank (MTB) will not beat Q1 2026 GAAP EPS consensus of $4.02–$4.08, set for release April 15, reflecting caution despite a 20% year-over-year growth bar from $3.38 and tailwinds like improving net interest margins and a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization on March 30. Recent beats in three of four prior quarters (Q2–Q4 2025 surprises of 5.7%–9.8%) contrast with Q1 misses in 2025 and 2024, fueling skepticism amid softer regional bank loan demand and potential credit provision volatility. Key swing factors include net interest income trajectory versus deposit cost pressures, with full-year 2026 EPS eyed at $18.77.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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