US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, nuclear facilities in Isfahan, and regime targets continued through March 27-28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, sustaining trader consensus at 60.5% for military action persisting through April 30 amid no ceasefire agreement. Iran's retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including a Houthi strike on Israel yesterday, have escalated regional involvement without prompting de-escalation, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Diplomatic efforts, such as today's regional powers summit in Pakistan, offer potential off-ramps, but ongoing operations and mixed signals from the Trump administration reinforce expectations of prolonged engagement over near-term resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Military action through April 30 61%
April 30 7.0%
Before April 2.8%
April 7 2.6%
NEW
$16,403 Vol.
NEW
$16,403 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
3%
April 1
2%
April 2
2%
April 3
2%
April 4
2%
April 5
1%
April 6
2%
April 7
3%
April 8
2%
April 9
2%
April 10
2%
April 11
2%
April 12
2%
April 13
2%
April 14
2%
April 15
2%
April 16
2%
April 17
2%
April 18
2%
April 19
2%
April 20
2%
April 21
2%
April 22
2%
April 23
2%
April 24
2%
April 25
2%
April 26
2%
April 27
2%
April 28
2%
April 29
2%
April 30
7%
Military action through April 30
61%
Military action through April 30 61%
April 30 7.0%
Before April 2.8%
April 7 2.6%
NEW
$16,403 Vol.
NEW
$16,403 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
$1,963 Vol.
3%
April 1
$522 Vol.
2%
April 2
$418 Vol.
2%
April 3
$418 Vol.
2%
April 4
$418 Vol.
2%
April 5
$418 Vol.
1%
April 6
$564 Vol.
2%
April 7
$418 Vol.
3%
April 8
$418 Vol.
2%
April 9
$418 Vol.
2%
April 10
$452 Vol.
2%
April 11
$418 Vol.
2%
April 12
$418 Vol.
2%
April 13
$572 Vol.
2%
April 14
$418 Vol.
2%
April 15
$418 Vol.
2%
April 16
$418 Vol.
2%
April 17
$418 Vol.
2%
April 18
$418 Vol.
2%
April 19
$418 Vol.
2%
April 20
$418 Vol.
2%
April 21
$418 Vol.
2%
April 22
$418 Vol.
2%
April 23
$418 Vol.
2%
April 24
$418 Vol.
2%
April 25
$418 Vol.
2%
April 26
$418 Vol.
2%
April 27
$418 Vol.
2%
April 28
$418 Vol.
2%
April 29
$418 Vol.
2%
April 30
$428 Vol.
7%
Military action through April 30
$1,441 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, nuclear facilities in Isfahan, and regime targets continued through March 27-28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, sustaining trader consensus at 60.5% for military action persisting through April 30 amid no ceasefire agreement. Iran's retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including a Houthi strike on Israel yesterday, have escalated regional involvement without prompting de-escalation, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Diplomatic efforts, such as today's regional powers summit in Pakistan, offer potential off-ramps, but ongoing operations and mixed signals from the Trump administration reinforce expectations of prolonged engagement over near-term resolution.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
音量
$16,403終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, nuclear facilities in Isfahan, and regime targets continued through March 27-28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, sustaining trader consensus at 60.5% for military action persisting through April 30 amid no ceasefire agreement. Iran's retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including a Houthi strike on Israel yesterday, have escalated regional involvement without prompting de-escalation, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Diplomatic efforts, such as today's regional powers summit in Pakistan, offer potential off-ramps, but ongoing operations and mixed signals from the Trump administration reinforce expectations of prolonged engagement over near-term resolution.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$16,403終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, nuclear facilities in Isfahan, and regime targets continued through March 27-28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, sustaining trader consensus at 60.5% for military action persisting through April 30 amid no ceasefire agreement. Iran's retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including a Houthi strike on Israel yesterday, have escalated regional involvement without prompting de-escalation, while the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Diplomatic efforts, such as today's regional powers summit in Pakistan, offer potential off-ramps, but ongoing operations and mixed signals from the Trump administration reinforce expectations of prolonged engagement over near-term resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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