Hezbollah has intensified military actions against Israel amid an escalating border conflict that reignited on March 2, 2026, with rocket barrages from southern Lebanon prompting Israel's ground incursion into southern Lebanon. In the past 24 hours as of March 28, Hezbollah claimed over 600 rocket, mortar, and drone launches targeting IDF troops and positions, doubling prior peaks and reaching northern Israeli settlements like Haifa Bay, while Israel advances deeper, issues evacuation orders, and strikes infrastructure including Litani River bridges and Hezbollah health centers. Over one million Lebanese are displaced, with growing Israeli domestic opposition to the campaign; no ceasefire talks are underway, and further escalation risks involving Iran remain high ahead of potential diplomatic interventions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$656,460 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
100%
March 27
97%
March 28
91%
March 29
85%
March 30
85%
March 31
87%
$656,460 Vol.
March 22
$583,156 Vol.
100%
March 27
$22,579 Vol.
97%
March 28
$15,657 Vol.
91%
March 29
$3,627 Vol.
85%
March 30
$2,594 Vol.
85%
March 31
$1,606 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has intensified military actions against Israel amid an escalating border conflict that reignited on March 2, 2026, with rocket barrages from southern Lebanon prompting Israel's ground incursion into southern Lebanon. In the past 24 hours as of March 28, Hezbollah claimed over 600 rocket, mortar, and drone launches targeting IDF troops and positions, doubling prior peaks and reaching northern Israeli settlements like Haifa Bay, while Israel advances deeper, issues evacuation orders, and strikes infrastructure including Litani River bridges and Hezbollah health centers. Over one million Lebanese are displaced, with growing Israeli domestic opposition to the campaign; no ceasefire talks are underway, and further escalation risks involving Iran remain high ahead of potential diplomatic interventions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
音量
$656,460終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has intensified military actions against Israel amid an escalating border conflict that reignited on March 2, 2026, with rocket barrages from southern Lebanon prompting Israel's ground incursion into southern Lebanon. In the past 24 hours as of March 28, Hezbollah claimed over 600 rocket, mortar, and drone launches targeting IDF troops and positions, doubling prior peaks and reaching northern Israeli settlements like Haifa Bay, while Israel advances deeper, issues evacuation orders, and strikes infrastructure including Litani River bridges and Hezbollah health centers. Over one million Lebanese are displaced, with growing Israeli domestic opposition to the campaign; no ceasefire talks are underway, and further escalation risks involving Iran remain high ahead of potential diplomatic interventions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$656,460終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah has intensified military actions against Israel amid an escalating border conflict that reignited on March 2, 2026, with rocket barrages from southern Lebanon prompting Israel's ground incursion into southern Lebanon. In the past 24 hours as of March 28, Hezbollah claimed over 600 rocket, mortar, and drone launches targeting IDF troops and positions, doubling prior peaks and reaching northern Israeli settlements like Haifa Bay, while Israel advances deeper, issues evacuation orders, and strikes infrastructure including Litani River bridges and Hezbollah health centers. Over one million Lebanese are displaced, with growing Israeli domestic opposition to the campaign; no ceasefire talks are underway, and further escalation risks involving Iran remain high ahead of potential diplomatic interventions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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