Hezbollah has escalated military actions against Israel since firing initial rockets on March 1, 2026—the first since the 2024 war—prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and ground advances into southern Lebanon amid the broader Iran conflict. In the past week, Hezbollah claimed 82 operations on March 26, including a mortar strike wounding four Israeli soldiers, drone attacks on bases like Ramat David, and missile barrages targeting IDF tanks and northern settlements up to Haifa, with over 600 projectiles reported in recent 24 hours. Israel reports intercepting most threats while pushing deeper to degrade Hezbollah capabilities. Traders monitor daily cross-border exchanges for de-escalation via diplomacy or further escalation from reinforcements, with no ceasefire signals yet.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,541,448 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
100%
March 29
87%
March 30
86%
March 31
86%
$1,541,448 Vol.
March 22
$1,447,464 Vol.
100%
March 29
$4,152 Vol.
87%
March 30
$2,800 Vol.
86%
March 31
$1,613 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has escalated military actions against Israel since firing initial rockets on March 1, 2026—the first since the 2024 war—prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and ground advances into southern Lebanon amid the broader Iran conflict. In the past week, Hezbollah claimed 82 operations on March 26, including a mortar strike wounding four Israeli soldiers, drone attacks on bases like Ramat David, and missile barrages targeting IDF tanks and northern settlements up to Haifa, with over 600 projectiles reported in recent 24 hours. Israel reports intercepting most threats while pushing deeper to degrade Hezbollah capabilities. Traders monitor daily cross-border exchanges for de-escalation via diplomacy or further escalation from reinforcements, with no ceasefire signals yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
音量
$1,541,448終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has escalated military actions against Israel since firing initial rockets on March 1, 2026—the first since the 2024 war—prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and ground advances into southern Lebanon amid the broader Iran conflict. In the past week, Hezbollah claimed 82 operations on March 26, including a mortar strike wounding four Israeli soldiers, drone attacks on bases like Ramat David, and missile barrages targeting IDF tanks and northern settlements up to Haifa, with over 600 projectiles reported in recent 24 hours. Israel reports intercepting most threats while pushing deeper to degrade Hezbollah capabilities. Traders monitor daily cross-border exchanges for de-escalation via diplomacy or further escalation from reinforcements, with no ceasefire signals yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$1,541,448終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
Hezbollah has escalated military actions against Israel since firing initial rockets on March 1, 2026—the first since the 2024 war—prompting Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and ground advances into southern Lebanon amid the broader Iran conflict. In the past week, Hezbollah claimed 82 operations on March 26, including a mortar strike wounding four Israeli soldiers, drone attacks on bases like Ramat David, and missile barrages targeting IDF tanks and northern settlements up to Haifa, with over 600 projectiles reported in recent 24 hours. Israel reports intercepting most threats while pushing deeper to degrade Hezbollah capabilities. Traders monitor daily cross-border exchanges for de-escalation via diplomacy or further escalation from reinforcements, with no ceasefire signals yet.
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