Hezbollah initiated escalated cross-border military actions against Israel on March 2, 2026, launching rockets, drones, artillery, and guided missiles at IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements in retaliation for Israeli strikes tied to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Near-daily attacks have continued, with Hezbollah claiming 63 operations over a 24-hour period ending March 23 and a mortar strike on March 26 seriously wounding one Israeli soldier while lightly injuring three others. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including Beirut suburbs, amid reports of over 700 attack waves by mid-March. Traders monitor for diplomatic de-escalation efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or further intensification as Lebanon pressures the group to halt operations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,254,009 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
100%
March 27
100%
March 29
86%
March 30
85%
March 31
86%
$1,254,009 Vol.
March 22
$1,161,770 Vol.
100%
March 27
$31,484 Vol.
100%
March 29
$3,916 Vol.
86%
March 30
$2,600 Vol.
85%
March 31
$1,613 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah initiated escalated cross-border military actions against Israel on March 2, 2026, launching rockets, drones, artillery, and guided missiles at IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements in retaliation for Israeli strikes tied to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Near-daily attacks have continued, with Hezbollah claiming 63 operations over a 24-hour period ending March 23 and a mortar strike on March 26 seriously wounding one Israeli soldier while lightly injuring three others. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including Beirut suburbs, amid reports of over 700 attack waves by mid-March. Traders monitor for diplomatic de-escalation efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or further intensification as Lebanon pressures the group to halt operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
音量
$1,254,009終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah initiated escalated cross-border military actions against Israel on March 2, 2026, launching rockets, drones, artillery, and guided missiles at IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements in retaliation for Israeli strikes tied to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Near-daily attacks have continued, with Hezbollah claiming 63 operations over a 24-hour period ending March 23 and a mortar strike on March 26 seriously wounding one Israeli soldier while lightly injuring three others. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including Beirut suburbs, amid reports of over 700 attack waves by mid-March. Traders monitor for diplomatic de-escalation efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or further intensification as Lebanon pressures the group to halt operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$1,254,009終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
Hezbollah initiated escalated cross-border military actions against Israel on March 2, 2026, launching rockets, drones, artillery, and guided missiles at IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements in retaliation for Israeli strikes tied to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Near-daily attacks have continued, with Hezbollah claiming 63 operations over a 24-hour period ending March 23 and a mortar strike on March 26 seriously wounding one Israeli soldier while lightly injuring three others. Israel has countered with airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including Beirut suburbs, amid reports of over 700 attack waves by mid-March. Traders monitor for diplomatic de-escalation efforts, potential ceasefire talks, or further intensification as Lebanon pressures the group to halt operations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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