Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000—yet unemployment remained stable at 4.4% and jobless claims low—reinforcing a hawkish dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end to a median 3.4%. A 13.5% chance of a 25 bps cut stems from soft payrolls signaling potential softening, though Treasury yields (10-year at ~4.28%) and Fed funds futures imply limited near-term easing. Watch March CPI release on April 10 for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日No change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,247,974 Vol.
$2,247,974 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,247,974 Vol.
$2,247,974 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$42,567 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,790 Vol.
14%
No change
$43,029 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,085,414 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$49,174 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000—yet unemployment remained stable at 4.4% and jobless claims low—reinforcing a hawkish dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end to a median 3.4%. A 13.5% chance of a 25 bps cut stems from soft payrolls signaling potential softening, though Treasury yields (10-year at ~4.28%) and Fed funds futures imply limited near-term easing. Watch March CPI release on April 10 for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$2,247,974終了日
Jul 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000—yet unemployment remained stable at 4.4% and jobless claims low—reinforcing a hawkish dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end to a median 3.4%. A 13.5% chance of a 25 bps cut stems from soft payrolls signaling potential softening, though Treasury yields (10-year at ~4.28%) and Fed funds futures imply limited near-term easing. Watch March CPI release on April 10 for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$2,247,974終了日
Jul 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000—yet unemployment remained stable at 4.4% and jobless claims low—reinforcing a hawkish dot plot projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end to a median 3.4%. A 13.5% chance of a 25 bps cut stems from soft payrolls signaling potential softening, though Treasury yields (10-year at ~4.28%) and Fed funds futures imply limited near-term easing. Watch March CPI release on April 10 for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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