Market icon
エコノミー·Fomc

Fed Decision in July?

Market icon
エコノミー·Fomc

Fed Decision in July?

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

No change 78%

25 bps decrease 14%

25 bps increase 7.2%

50+ bps decrease 1.8%

Polymarket

$2,249,107 Vol.

No change 78%

25 bps decrease 14%

25 bps increase 7.2%

50+ bps decrease 1.8%

Polymarket

$2,249,107 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$43,367 Vol.

2%

25 bps decrease

$27,797 Vol.

14%

No change

$43,029 Vol.

78%

25 bps increase

$2,085,414 Vol.

7%

50+ bps increase

$49,500 Vol.

1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the March 18 policy statement maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market shown by February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline. Upside inflation pressures from oil price surges tied to the Iran conflict have slashed overall 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch, supporting modest 13.5% pricing for a 25 basis points decrease while elevating hike risks to 8.1% combined. Key April data releases precede the next FOMC on April 28-29.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the March 18 policy statement maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market shown by February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline. Upside inflation pressures from oil price surges tied to the Iran conflict have slashed overall 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch, supporting modest 13.5% pricing for a 25 basis points decrease while elevating hike risks to 8.1% combined. Key April data releases precede the next FOMC on April 28-29.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the March 18 policy statement maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market shown by February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline. Upside inflation pressures from oil price surges tied to the Iran conflict have slashed overall 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch, supporting modest 13.5% pricing for a 25 basis points decrease while elevating hike risks to 8.1% combined. Key April data releases precede the next FOMC on April 28-29.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by the March 18 policy statement maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market shown by February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline. Upside inflation pressures from oil price surges tied to the Iran conflict have slashed overall 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch, supporting modest 13.5% pricing for a 25 basis points decrease while elevating hike risks to 8.1% combined. Key April data releases precede the next FOMC on April 28-29.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「Fed Decision in July?」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「No change」で78%、次いで「25 bps decrease」が14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、78¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に78%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Fed Decision in July?」は$2.2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 20, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Fed Decision in July?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Fed Decision in July?」の現在のフロントランナーは「No change」で78%であり、市場がこの結果に78%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「25 bps decrease」で14%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Fed Decision in July?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。