Polymarket traders price a 73.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs against 190,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, which tempers urgency for monetary policy easing despite June CPI inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year. Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent stance, with June FOMC minutes indicating most officials anticipate just one or two cuts in 2024, likely starting in September amid sticky core PCE readings near 2.6%. A 17.5% chance of a 25 basis points cut persists on softer June PPI data and disinflation hopes, while hike odds below 10% signal broad consensus on cooling price pressures; watch July retail sales and housing starts for pre-meeting catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日No change 74%
25 bps decrease 18%
25 bps increase 7.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$2,032,267 Vol.
$2,032,267 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
18%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps decrease 18%
25 bps increase 7.0%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$2,032,267 Vol.
$2,032,267 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$30,929 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$16,386 Vol.
18%
No change
$21,079 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$1,928,176 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$35,697 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 73.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs against 190,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, which tempers urgency for monetary policy easing despite June CPI inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year. Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent stance, with June FOMC minutes indicating most officials anticipate just one or two cuts in 2024, likely starting in September amid sticky core PCE readings near 2.6%. A 17.5% chance of a 25 basis points cut persists on softer June PPI data and disinflation hopes, while hike odds below 10% signal broad consensus on cooling price pressures; watch July retail sales and housing starts for pre-meeting catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$2,032,267終了日
Jul 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 73.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs against 190,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, which tempers urgency for monetary policy easing despite June CPI inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year. Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent stance, with June FOMC minutes indicating most officials anticipate just one or two cuts in 2024, likely starting in September amid sticky core PCE readings near 2.6%. A 17.5% chance of a 25 basis points cut persists on softer June PPI data and disinflation hopes, while hike odds below 10% signal broad consensus on cooling price pressures; watch July retail sales and housing starts for pre-meeting catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$2,032,267終了日
Jul 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 73.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs against 190,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, which tempers urgency for monetary policy easing despite June CPI inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year. Chair Powell's congressional testimony reinforced a data-dependent stance, with June FOMC minutes indicating most officials anticipate just one or two cuts in 2024, likely starting in September amid sticky core PCE readings near 2.6%. A 17.5% chance of a 25 basis points cut persists on softer June PPI data and disinflation hopes, while hike odds below 10% signal broad consensus on cooling price pressures; watch July retail sales and housing starts for pre-meeting catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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