Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 16-17 Copom meeting, driven by ongoing disinflation and economic softening despite February IPCA inflation at 4.92% YoY, above the 3% target midpoint. The central bank's March cut of 50 basis points to 10.75%—its sixth consecutive reduction—reinforces forward guidance for gradual easing, supported by Reuters polls forecasting another 50bps trim to around 10.25%. Weaker GDP growth projections and global rate cut bets temper no-change odds at 22%, while hike expectations languish at 1.2%, with March inflation data as the pivotal near-term catalyst shaping resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日引き下げ 79%
変更なし 22%
引き上げ 1.0%
$84,687 Vol.
$84,687 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
引き上げ
1%
変更なし
22%
引き下げ
79%
引き下げ 79%
変更なし 22%
引き上げ 1.0%
$84,687 Vol.
$84,687 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
引き上げ
$33,971 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$22,979 Vol.
22%
引き下げ
$27,737 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
音量
$84,687終了日
Apr 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$84,687終了日
Apr 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78.5% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 16-17 Copom meeting, driven by ongoing disinflation and economic softening despite February IPCA inflation at 4.92% YoY, above the 3% target midpoint. The central bank's March cut of 50 basis points to 10.75%—its sixth consecutive reduction—reinforces forward guidance for gradual easing, supported by Reuters polls forecasting another 50bps trim to around 10.25%. Weaker GDP growth projections and global rate cut bets temper no-change odds at 22%, while hike expectations languish at 1.2%, with March inflation data as the pivotal near-term catalyst shaping resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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