Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on the Central Bank's crawling peg sustaining 1-2% monthly devaluations to align with disinflating inflation, now at 33.1% year-over-year in February 2026. The official wholesale rate traded around 1419 ARS/USD as of April 1 within the BCRA's band (lower limit 842, upper 1656), bolstered by net reserve purchases of USD 1.56 billion in February amid Milei's interventions to curb volatility despite fuel price hikes pressuring March inflation. Lower-bucket odds trail due to tail risks from political polarization or external debt maturities, with upcoming March CPI and REM survey updates as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日1600.00以上 41%
1450.00～1499.99 8.2%
1350.00〜1399.99 8.1%
1,500.00–1,549.99 7.6%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
1250.00未満
7%
1250.00～1299.99
7%
1300.00〜1349.99
5%
1350.00〜1399.99
8%
1400.00〜1449.99
6%
1450.00～1499.99
8%
1,500.00–1,549.99
9%
1550.00–1599.99
6%
1600.00以上
53%
1600.00以上 41%
1450.00～1499.99 8.2%
1350.00〜1399.99 8.1%
1,500.00–1,549.99 7.6%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
1250.00未満
$0 Vol.
7%
1250.00～1299.99
$0 Vol.
7%
1300.00〜1349.99
$0 Vol.
5%
1350.00〜1399.99
$0 Vol.
8%
1400.00〜1449.99
$0 Vol.
6%
1450.00～1499.99
$677 Vol.
8%
1,500.00–1,549.99
$667 Vol.
9%
1550.00–1599.99
$0 Vol.
6%
1600.00以上
$1,324 Vol.
53%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on the Central Bank's crawling peg sustaining 1-2% monthly devaluations to align with disinflating inflation, now at 33.1% year-over-year in February 2026. The official wholesale rate traded around 1419 ARS/USD as of April 1 within the BCRA's band (lower limit 842, upper 1656), bolstered by net reserve purchases of USD 1.56 billion in February amid Milei's interventions to curb volatility despite fuel price hikes pressuring March inflation. Lower-bucket odds trail due to tail risks from political polarization or external debt maturities, with upcoming March CPI and REM survey updates as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
音量
$2,668終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on the Central Bank's crawling peg sustaining 1-2% monthly devaluations to align with disinflating inflation, now at 33.1% year-over-year in February 2026. The official wholesale rate traded around 1419 ARS/USD as of April 1 within the BCRA's band (lower limit 842, upper 1656), bolstered by net reserve purchases of USD 1.56 billion in February amid Milei's interventions to curb volatility despite fuel price hikes pressuring March inflation. Lower-bucket odds trail due to tail risks from political polarization or external debt maturities, with upcoming March CPI and REM survey updates as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$2,668終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 52.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting consensus on the Central Bank's crawling peg sustaining 1-2% monthly devaluations to align with disinflating inflation, now at 33.1% year-over-year in February 2026. The official wholesale rate traded around 1419 ARS/USD as of April 1 within the BCRA's band (lower limit 842, upper 1656), bolstered by net reserve purchases of USD 1.56 billion in February amid Milei's interventions to curb volatility despite fuel price hikes pressuring March inflation. Lower-bucket odds trail due to tail risks from political polarization or external debt maturities, with upcoming March CPI and REM survey updates as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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