Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic's (BCRA) inflation-linked crawling band regime implemented in January 2026, which adjusts the peso's trading floor and ceiling monthly based on prior inflation data. With the spot rate hovering around 1400 as of early April—up from 1393 in March—this reflects expectations of cumulative 2026 inflation around 26%, per the BCRA's latest Market Expectations Survey forecasting USD/ARS at 1707. February's 2.9% monthly inflation (33.1% year-on-year), stable but above forecasts, reinforces gradual depreciation amid $19 billion debt maturities; lower bands like under 1250 (10.1%) face slim odds absent policy reversal, with March inflation data and Q2 reserve accumulation as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日1600.00以上 41%
1250.00未満 10.1%
1350.00〜1399.99 8.1%
1,500.00–1,549.99 7.6%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
1250.00未満
10%
1250.00～1299.99
8%
1300.00〜1349.99
5%
1350.00〜1399.99
8%
1400.00〜1449.99
6%
1450.00～1499.99
8%
1,500.00–1,549.99
9%
1550.00–1599.99
6%
1600.00以上
53%
1600.00以上 41%
1250.00未満 10.1%
1350.00〜1399.99 8.1%
1,500.00–1,549.99 7.6%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
1250.00未満
$0 Vol.
10%
1250.00～1299.99
$0 Vol.
8%
1300.00〜1349.99
$0 Vol.
5%
1350.00〜1399.99
$0 Vol.
8%
1400.00〜1449.99
$0 Vol.
6%
1450.00～1499.99
$677 Vol.
8%
1,500.00–1,549.99
$667 Vol.
9%
1550.00–1599.99
$0 Vol.
6%
1600.00以上
$1,324 Vol.
53%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic's (BCRA) inflation-linked crawling band regime implemented in January 2026, which adjusts the peso's trading floor and ceiling monthly based on prior inflation data. With the spot rate hovering around 1400 as of early April—up from 1393 in March—this reflects expectations of cumulative 2026 inflation around 26%, per the BCRA's latest Market Expectations Survey forecasting USD/ARS at 1707. February's 2.9% monthly inflation (33.1% year-on-year), stable but above forecasts, reinforces gradual depreciation amid $19 billion debt maturities; lower bands like under 1250 (10.1%) face slim odds absent policy reversal, with March inflation data and Q2 reserve accumulation as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
音量
$2,668終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic's (BCRA) inflation-linked crawling band regime implemented in January 2026, which adjusts the peso's trading floor and ceiling monthly based on prior inflation data. With the spot rate hovering around 1400 as of early April—up from 1393 in March—this reflects expectations of cumulative 2026 inflation around 26%, per the BCRA's latest Market Expectations Survey forecasting USD/ARS at 1707. February's 2.9% monthly inflation (33.1% year-on-year), stable but above forecasts, reinforces gradual depreciation amid $19 billion debt maturities; lower bands like under 1250 (10.1%) face slim odds absent policy reversal, with March inflation data and Q2 reserve accumulation as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$2,668終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic's (BCRA) inflation-linked crawling band regime implemented in January 2026, which adjusts the peso's trading floor and ceiling monthly based on prior inflation data. With the spot rate hovering around 1400 as of early April—up from 1393 in March—this reflects expectations of cumulative 2026 inflation around 26%, per the BCRA's latest Market Expectations Survey forecasting USD/ARS at 1707. February's 2.9% monthly inflation (33.1% year-on-year), stable but above forecasts, reinforces gradual depreciation amid $19 billion debt maturities; lower bands like under 1250 (10.1%) face slim odds absent policy reversal, with March inflation data and Q2 reserve accumulation as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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