Strong semiconductor export growth, with October preliminary figures surging over 100% year-on-year and chips comprising nearly half of shipments, has driven heavy dollar sales by Korean exporters, pushing USD/KRW to a near two-year low near 1,333 on October 12. The Bank of Korea’s back-to-back 50-basis-point hikes to 3.00% since July, plus a median dot-plot signal for another 25bp move, have reinforced KRW support amid a record current-account surplus projected near $450 billion for 2026. A widening Korea-U.S. rate differential following the Fed’s recent tightening adds counter-pressure, yet dollar-index weakness and favorable global risk sentiment have outweighed it recently. Traders are monitoring the October 22 BOK meeting and late-month FOMC decision for further policy signals, with consolidation expected in the 1,360–1,400 range absent new shocks.
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