Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with odds shaped by historical baselines rather than imminent threats following the 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan on April 3 that killed 18 and triggered landslides. No M7.0+ quakes have occurred globally in the past three weeks per USGS data, aligning with the typical annual rate of 12-20 such events concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent uptick in Vanuatu and Indonesia foreshocks heightens monitoring, but experts emphasize earthquakes defy precise forecasting. Bettors eye real-time USGS alerts and seasonal patterns in subduction zones like Japan and the Philippines ahead of the market's resolution date, where any surprise rupture could swiftly shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日また7.0以上の地震が... ？
また7.0以上の地震が... ？
NEW
May 31, 2026
3月31日
20%
4月30日
67%
5月31日
96%
$4,132 Vol.
3月31日
$1,733 Vol.
20%
4月30日
$1,613 Vol.
67%
5月31日
$785 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with odds shaped by historical baselines rather than imminent threats following the 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan on April 3 that killed 18 and triggered landslides. No M7.0+ quakes have occurred globally in the past three weeks per USGS data, aligning with the typical annual rate of 12-20 such events concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent uptick in Vanuatu and Indonesia foreshocks heightens monitoring, but experts emphasize earthquakes defy precise forecasting. Bettors eye real-time USGS alerts and seasonal patterns in subduction zones like Japan and the Philippines ahead of the market's resolution date, where any surprise rupture could swiftly shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
音量
$4,132終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with odds shaped by historical baselines rather than imminent threats following the 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan on April 3 that killed 18 and triggered landslides. No M7.0+ quakes have occurred globally in the past three weeks per USGS data, aligning with the typical annual rate of 12-20 such events concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent uptick in Vanuatu and Indonesia foreshocks heightens monitoring, but experts emphasize earthquakes defy precise forecasting. Bettors eye real-time USGS alerts and seasonal patterns in subduction zones like Japan and the Philippines ahead of the market's resolution date, where any surprise rupture could swiftly shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$4,132終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with odds shaped by historical baselines rather than imminent threats following the 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan on April 3 that killed 18 and triggered landslides. No M7.0+ quakes have occurred globally in the past three weeks per USGS data, aligning with the typical annual rate of 12-20 such events concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent uptick in Vanuatu and Indonesia foreshocks heightens monitoring, but experts emphasize earthquakes defy precise forecasting. Bettors eye real-time USGS alerts and seasonal patterns in subduction zones like Japan and the Philippines ahead of the market's resolution date, where any surprise rupture could swiftly shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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