Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with recent developments centering on a magnitude 7.5 quake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24— the strongest globally in 2026 so far, at a deep 229.5 km depth that limited surface impact. This followed a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, on February 22, marking only two such events year-to-date against a historical average of 15-20 annually. No aftershocks or swarms signal heightened risk in the immediate term, per USGS data, leaving short-term markets like by March 31 in low-probability territory absent surprises. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for confirmations, as magnitudes can revise, with resolution hinging on verified M7+ occurrences before deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日また7.0以上の地震が... ？
また7.0以上の地震が... ？
$20,078 Vol.
May 31, 2026
3月31日
12%
4月30日
63%
5月31日
85%
$20,078 Vol.
3月31日
$6,745 Vol.
12%
4月30日
$9,994 Vol.
63%
5月31日
$3,339 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with recent developments centering on a magnitude 7.5 quake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24— the strongest globally in 2026 so far, at a deep 229.5 km depth that limited surface impact. This followed a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, on February 22, marking only two such events year-to-date against a historical average of 15-20 annually. No aftershocks or swarms signal heightened risk in the immediate term, per USGS data, leaving short-term markets like by March 31 in low-probability territory absent surprises. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for confirmations, as magnitudes can revise, with resolution hinging on verified M7+ occurrences before deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
音量
$20,078終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with recent developments centering on a magnitude 7.5 quake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24— the strongest globally in 2026 so far, at a deep 229.5 km depth that limited surface impact. This followed a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, on February 22, marking only two such events year-to-date against a historical average of 15-20 annually. No aftershocks or swarms signal heightened risk in the immediate term, per USGS data, leaving short-term markets like by March 31 in low-probability territory absent surprises. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for confirmations, as magnitudes can revise, with resolution hinging on verified M7+ occurrences before deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$20,078終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismic events, with recent developments centering on a magnitude 7.5 quake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24— the strongest globally in 2026 so far, at a deep 229.5 km depth that limited surface impact. This followed a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia, on February 22, marking only two such events year-to-date against a historical average of 15-20 annually. No aftershocks or swarms signal heightened risk in the immediate term, per USGS data, leaving short-term markets like by March 31 in low-probability territory absent surprises. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for confirmations, as magnitudes can revise, with resolution hinging on verified M7+ occurrences before deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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