Maryland's 4th Congressional District, with a D+39 partisan voting index, remains a Democratic stronghold encompassing much of Prince George's County and federal employee-heavy suburbs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 93.5% to retain the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position—bolstered by his 88% general election win in 2024, dominant fundraising exceeding $400,000 in receipts, and no primary challengers polling competitively—solidifies this lead, as rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. The sole Republican contender, George McDermott, lost decisively last cycle. While no major developments have emerged in the past month, the June 23 Democratic primary could test Ivey against Joseph Gomes, Shavonne Hedgepeth, and others; an upset yielding a weakened nominee or unforeseen scandals might marginally shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable absent a national Republican wave.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
MD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$20,709 Vol.
$20,709 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
94%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$20,709 Vol.
$20,709 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$6,499 Vol.
94%
Partito Repubblicano
$14,210 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th Congressional District, with a D+39 partisan voting index, remains a Democratic stronghold encompassing much of Prince George's County and federal employee-heavy suburbs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 93.5% to retain the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position—bolstered by his 88% general election win in 2024, dominant fundraising exceeding $400,000 in receipts, and no primary challengers polling competitively—solidifies this lead, as rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. The sole Republican contender, George McDermott, lost decisively last cycle. While no major developments have emerged in the past month, the June 23 Democratic primary could test Ivey against Joseph Gomes, Shavonne Hedgepeth, and others; an upset yielding a weakened nominee or unforeseen scandals might marginally shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable absent a national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$20,709Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th Congressional District, with a D+39 partisan voting index, remains a Democratic stronghold encompassing much of Prince George's County and federal employee-heavy suburbs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 93.5% to retain the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position—bolstered by his 88% general election win in 2024, dominant fundraising exceeding $400,000 in receipts, and no primary challengers polling competitively—solidifies this lead, as rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. The sole Republican contender, George McDermott, lost decisively last cycle. While no major developments have emerged in the past month, the June 23 Democratic primary could test Ivey against Joseph Gomes, Shavonne Hedgepeth, and others; an upset yielding a weakened nominee or unforeseen scandals might marginally shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable absent a national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,709Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th Congressional District, with a D+39 partisan voting index, remains a Democratic stronghold encompassing much of Prince George's County and federal employee-heavy suburbs, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 93.5% to retain the seat in November 2026. Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position—bolstered by his 88% general election win in 2024, dominant fundraising exceeding $400,000 in receipts, and no primary challengers polling competitively—solidifies this lead, as rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report. The sole Republican contender, George McDermott, lost decisively last cycle. While no major developments have emerged in the past month, the June 23 Democratic primary could test Ivey against Joseph Gomes, Shavonne Hedgepeth, and others; an upset yielding a weakened nominee or unforeseen scandals might marginally shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable absent a national Republican wave.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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