Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic profile, with a Partisan Voter Index around D+39 that has produced consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, seeking re-election in the November 2026 general election, enters the June 23 Democratic primary against several challengers while facing only token Republican opposition from George McDermott. This entrenched partisan balance and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics sustain the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. A primary upset or late-cycle national shift could theoretically alter the general-election landscape, yet the district’s structural fundamentals would still require an extraordinary reversal to change the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
MD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
94%
Partito Repubblicano
5%
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$8,057 Vol.
94%
Partito Repubblicano
$16,528 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic profile, with a Partisan Voter Index around D+39 that has produced consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, seeking re-election in the November 2026 general election, enters the June 23 Democratic primary against several challengers while facing only token Republican opposition from George McDermott. This entrenched partisan balance and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics sustain the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. A primary upset or late-cycle national shift could theoretically alter the general-election landscape, yet the district’s structural fundamentals would still require an extraordinary reversal to change the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,585Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic profile, with a Partisan Voter Index around D+39 that has produced consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, seeking re-election in the November 2026 general election, enters the June 23 Democratic primary against several challengers while facing only token Republican opposition from George McDermott. This entrenched partisan balance and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics sustain the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. A primary upset or late-cycle national shift could theoretically alter the general-election landscape, yet the district’s structural fundamentals would still require an extraordinary reversal to change the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,585Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic profile, with a Partisan Voter Index around D+39 that has produced consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, seeking re-election in the November 2026 general election, enters the June 23 Democratic primary against several challengers while facing only token Republican opposition from George McDermott. This entrenched partisan balance and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics sustain the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. A primary upset or late-cycle national shift could theoretically alter the general-election landscape, yet the district’s structural fundamentals would still require an extraordinary reversal to change the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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