Elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and associated oil shock represent the dominant driver behind the 52% market-implied probability for a 0.5% month-over-month May 2026 CPI increase. April’s 0.6% headline rise, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, the highest since mid-2023, established upward momentum that professional forecasters have incorporated into Q2 annualized projections near 6%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and RBC Economics both align closely with the 0.5% level, while core measures remain more contained around 0.3%. With the May release scheduled for mid-June, any moderation in gasoline or shelter components could shift probabilities toward the 22% odds on 0.4%, but persistent geopolitical pressures continue to anchor trader consensus around the higher reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMay Inflation US - Monthly
May Inflation US - Monthly
0.5% 52%
0.4% 22.4%
0.6% 17%
0.3% 3.4%
$55,228 Vol.
$55,228 Vol.
10 giu 2026
≤0.1%
1%
0.2%
1%
0.3%
3%
0.4%
22%
0.5%
52%
0.6%
17%
0.7%
3%
0.8%
2%
≥0.9%
1%
0.5% 52%
0.4% 22.4%
0.6% 17%
0.3% 3.4%
$55,228 Vol.
$55,228 Vol.
10 giu 2026
≤0.1%
$1,566 Vol.
1%
0.2%
$2,695 Vol.
1%
0.3%
$3,623 Vol.
3%
0.4%
$5,529 Vol.
22%
0.5%
$10,259 Vol.
52%
0.6%
$15,387 Vol.
17%
0.7%
$9,910 Vol.
3%
0.8%
$3,194 Vol.
2%
≥0.9%
$3,085 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and associated oil shock represent the dominant driver behind the 52% market-implied probability for a 0.5% month-over-month May 2026 CPI increase. April’s 0.6% headline rise, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, the highest since mid-2023, established upward momentum that professional forecasters have incorporated into Q2 annualized projections near 6%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and RBC Economics both align closely with the 0.5% level, while core measures remain more contained around 0.3%. With the May release scheduled for mid-June, any moderation in gasoline or shelter components could shift probabilities toward the 22% odds on 0.4%, but persistent geopolitical pressures continue to anchor trader consensus around the higher reading.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$55,228Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and associated oil shock represent the dominant driver behind the 52% market-implied probability for a 0.5% month-over-month May 2026 CPI increase. April’s 0.6% headline rise, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, the highest since mid-2023, established upward momentum that professional forecasters have incorporated into Q2 annualized projections near 6%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and RBC Economics both align closely with the 0.5% level, while core measures remain more contained around 0.3%. With the May release scheduled for mid-June, any moderation in gasoline or shelter components could shift probabilities toward the 22% odds on 0.4%, but persistent geopolitical pressures continue to anchor trader consensus around the higher reading.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$55,228Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and associated oil shock represent the dominant driver behind the 52% market-implied probability for a 0.5% month-over-month May 2026 CPI increase. April’s 0.6% headline rise, which lifted the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, the highest since mid-2023, established upward momentum that professional forecasters have incorporated into Q2 annualized projections near 6%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and RBC Economics both align closely with the 0.5% level, while core measures remain more contained around 0.3%. With the May release scheduled for mid-June, any moderation in gasoline or shelter components could shift probabilities toward the 22% odds on 0.4%, but persistent geopolitical pressures continue to anchor trader consensus around the higher reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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