The Bank of Korea’s next policy meeting on August 27 follows its July 25 basis point hike to 2.75 percent—the first tightening move since 2023—prompted by June inflation accelerating to 3.2 percent, above the 2 percent target, alongside a weaker won, rising property prices, and elevated household credit growth. Strong semiconductor exports tied to AI demand have lifted the 2026 GDP forecast to 2.6 percent and eased growth concerns, supporting the shift toward prioritizing price stability. With the recent rate increase still embedding into markets and no fresh inflation or labor data materially altering the outlook since July, trader consensus heavily favors holding the policy rate steady at the August meeting. Modest probabilities attached to a further hike reflect analyst views that additional tightening could occur later in the year if inflation persists, while cut odds remain negligible given the hawkish pivot.